I don't really think these markets are completely neutral.

Like maybe I'd get behind a good Bernie-crat type campaign for the opportunities to engage in mass consciousnes. but the concrete basis for a moderate social democrat, or the left of that, to carry out any manner of social reform by taxing billionaires, does not exist. Maybe we can argue that its closer than its ever been, and who knows what'll happen in the next few years as consciousness among certain layers of workers is further left than its ever been. The USA has moved left on Palestine and I think we will move left on other issues like climate and energy reform, immigration, and maybe even certain threads of anti imperialism, such as reducing military spending.

But defeating socdems and reformers in polls is a way that the right and center demonstrate their own viability and claim that social reforms are unpopular with the vast majority of Americans. Like I wonder how much of these polls, and now predictive markets (seriously how compromised is a friggin casino, this is like free publicity for them and a potential honeypot) are just to like lure her and her supporters into running a presidential campaign that could end up discrediting democratic socialism as a viable political direction.

And sure this is all electoralism and to some extent just bourgie wonkishness, or maybe I'm paranoid, but the source for this is particularly compromised and unreliable from my perspective. Like having her winning the presidency before she's even announced. The media just keeps saying she would win, except the media is more corrupted by centralized reactionary political capital than it has ever been.