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'At some point you've got to make money': Goldman's top AI skeptic warns the clock is running out ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs (fortune.com)
submitted 2 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 3 points 2 months ago (2 children)

If you don't understand why AI is going to be akin to a failed industrial revolution, maybe give this scenario a read. Here a think tank has written a forcast on how AI will potentially unfold and influence the global future.

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  • [–] 10 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Is that a forecast or fanfic?

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    They worked on it in stages—starting with early ideas up to mid-2025, then continuing to build from there. But instead of sticking with that first draft, they threw it out and started over from scratch.

    They also didn’t settle on just one ending. After finishing their first version (the one marked in red), they created a second, more hopeful outcome starting from roughly the same point. That version also went through several rounds of revisions.

    And this wasn’t made up out of nowhere—it was based on about 25 tabletop exercises and feedback from over 100 people, including dozens of experts who work directly in AI governance and AI technical fields.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    including dozens of experts who work directly in AI governance and AI technical fields.

    All of those people are fucking clowns and you know it. They're these morons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist_community

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)

    I didn't know it and although the read was interesting to me I didn't immediately make the connection, no divisiveness intended on my behalf. Disregard the post if you like, we are all free to listen to eachother's point of views, then arrive at our own conclusions .

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago

    we are all free to listen to eachother’s point of views, then arrive at our own conclusions .

    Sure, but I'm not going to pretend for a second that the pseudointellectual masturbation of "rationalists" is worth a damn just because their narratives were useful to capalist oligarchs so some people call them "experts" now. What a farce

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago

    They predict "reliable agent" by 2026. I think they've already failed. AI is still unreliable tool. It's a very useful tool but there is no signs of any change to being reliable. Particularly odd is their claim that a new and better AI will come out from the work of the old unreliable AI. This is unlikely given that it has already been shown that AI trained on other AI degrades, not improves.

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