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SpaceX satellites half the size of pickup trucks are falling from the sky (thenarwhal.ca)
submitted 4 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/58949709

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[–] 2 points 4 months ago* (3 children)

Every time somebody mentions Kessler syndrome they always seem to forget that low earth orbit is an area literally bigger than the earth's surface. There's about 10,000 of them and they are spread out over an area bigger than the surface of the earth. Meanwhile there are way more than 10,000 trucks in the world and apparently they are twice the size, and yet there are huge swaths of land that do not currently have a truck on them. I think we'll be okay.

Although I do accept they are probably irritating for astronomers.

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago* (2 children)

    Collisions aren't theoretical, near misses are so common that there's an entire department at NASA dedicated to detecting them and warning satellite owners to adjust course, I know because we were contacted about a possible collision involving our cubesat. Prior to megaconstellations being deployed if humanity stopped adjusting satellite orbits there would be a collision within a month, now there would be a collision within 5 days. It's only a matter of time until both satellites on a collision course don't have the ability to adjust course (engine failure or no propulsion/fuel/comms). In the event of a Carrington-style solar flare there's a good chance a decent percentage of satellites would be knocked out, making this hypothetical into a reality. Further, we can only currently track objects down to about 10cm, but NASA estimates suggest about 500,000 objects exist between 1-10cm in size in LEO.

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  • [–] -1 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    A collision event is considered any event where a satellite passes within a ridiculously large distance of another satellite. It doesn't mean they're necessarily going to collide.

    In the incredibly unlikely event that all of the things that you have stated happen everything would clear out within 12 to 18 months which given the fact you've just decimated 21st century civilisation is probably the least of everyone's concerns anyway.

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  • [–] 4 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

    A solar flare is just one example of many possible causes. There are plenty of other ones. You didn't touch on any of the others so let me explain - NASA reports on small satellite missions show that about 40% of satellites experience at least partial mission failure within their lifetime. Studies have shown the leading cause of satellite failure is propulsion systems, responsible for about half of all failures. This is not uncommon at all.

    Most altitude ranges in LEO still have debris from decades ago, the exception being below 300km, which is basically still in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, debris strikes have regularly produced debris that are flung into higher orbits, so even collisions between satellites in this range are dangerous.

    Edit: I also forgot to mention, the five day estimate (now three days actually) wasn't for a close-call, it was for a debris-generating event.

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