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[–] 334 points 10 months ago (48 children)

I can only hope that the A.I. bubble bursts in time when I need to buy a new computer.

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  • [–] 277 points 10 months ago (31 children)

    What I'm becoming worried about now is all these corporations now realizing that they can simply supply price the average consumer out of owning electronics or any kind of compute. And locking them into renting or leasing access to data center compute and keeping the power of information further consolidated in corporate interests.

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  • [–] 136 points 10 months ago (5 children)

    “You will own nothing and be happy”

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  • [–] 24 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    That out of context quote takes a lot of shit for something that was supposed to represent a futuristic socialist utopia.

    The idea was that 14 years after that article was published, mankind would have such immediate access to services and those services would be free, that people would just sorta stop caring about owning things. For example, since food and necessities would be free, you could go home and print your dinner. If you wanted someone else to cook, you'd get something delivered. But, if you wanted to try something truly novel that most people don't do anymore in this society, you could rent kitchen equipment and it'd be ready as soon as you need it, and you'd use socialized appliances and utensils. Why? Because your home doesn't need that clutter. If you wanna cook all the time, you can own whatever you want. But most people will want to use that space for something else, so they'll just print their meals.

    You would have quick and easy access to transport, so why waste the money and space to own a car? You wanna drive? Push a button in your app and a car arrives for free. Or take the free train or bus.

    The essay isn't about "you won't be able to own anything," it's about "you won't want to own anything, but you'll have everything you could ever want or need."

    And we're really headed in the right direction for this amazing future. Except, you know... Corporations are bleeding us dry instead of supporting us...

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  • [–] 10 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    That does sound lovely, but like every other utopia it’s a fantasy. It’s got the same fatal issue as every other utopia - people. A person can be good and decent, but people suck. I’d say the modern use of that quote is more accurate to reality than the rose tinted view of its origin.

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  • [–] 9 points 10 months ago

    The link doesn't work for me.

    Even if the initial intention is positive, I think this degree of dependency on external services is not realistic even if mega corps were not as bad as they are currently.

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  • [–] 84 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    Holy cow that’s a very real danger I hadn’t thought of! The industry needs a new trend to reuse all this capacity they built, because AI will likely scale back as many startups fail to reach profit.

    Renting your home computer might be the next trend, and it could be gratis at first so people get used to it. Why spy on users when you can actually own their computers?

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  • [–] 54 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    Aren't we already seeing that though?

    The vast majority of people who surf the web don't use a computer to do it. People who do belong to niches. People over a certain age grew up with and still buy computers. People who game still buy computers or consoles. People who stream/create content still use computers and other electronics for that purpose, same with like. Engineers and hobbyists using CAD and other software in creative spaces.

    But the smart phone has overtaken the computer as a personal computing device by quite a large margin now. And at every turn companies are trying to make cell phones a den of ad service, slop, and addictive content while stealing any user data that's not nailed down to increase their revenue and continue the circle.

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    with being a walled garden i have a feeling we will eventually see phones become genuinely free because you will not have an option to keep your data away from advertisers. AOSP is barely holding on to maintain a safe place for users. when all hardware is locked down we will be stuck.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago (1 child)

    I'm assuming you mean that phone software will be free, because phones (while they can be heavily subsidized) aren't free and are getting up to ridiculous prices. I own a phone that retails for $1000. That's a ridiculous price for a phone. Except that phones now are just very tiny personal computers.

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  • [–] 8 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    theyd have to all collorbate to make that happen though, which is really unfeasable on their end. a BUNCH of companies will go under if they cannot sell product. they arent going to willingly take losses for the sake of a different company.

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  • [–] 17 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    They don't really have to collaborate though. They're proving right now that they can price out consumers by just buying all the hardware capacity up and letting the market take care of the little guys. Hardware manufacturers like Micron are obliging.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago* (1 child)

    the ai companies are but that doesnt talk about the hardware specific companies. for example dell, hp and lenovo run a large business laptop leasing business if they do not get their ram, it will sour their relationships with memory manufacturers . they arent all going to be willing to take losses

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago

    for example dell, hp and lenovo run a large business laptop leasing business if they do not get their ram, it will sour their relationships with memory manufacturers

    Lenovo is stockpiling memory to try to make it through the RAM winter.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ram/lenovo-stockpiles-ram-as-prices-skyrocket-reportedly-has-enough-inventory-to-last-through-2026-memory-stock-claimed-to-be-50-percent-higher-than-usual-to-fight-pricing-shock

    Lenovo stockpiles RAM as prices skyrocket, reportedly has enough inventory to last through 2026 — memory stock claimed to be 50% higher than usual to fight pricing shock

    Lenovo is playing it smart and buying up as much memory inventory as it can

    I don't think that Lenovo is getting special deals with memory makers either, or they wouldn't need to stockpile.

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  • [–] 7 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    I hope they do, it will just break stuff more and people will be more likely to go with Linux and open source software. My 10 year old computer still is super fast if it's not bloated.

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  • [–] 29 points 10 months ago

    Linux won’t make bullshit pc part prices cheaper. RAM, SSDs, GPUs are all rising in prices because of the AI bubble, used and new are all being affected. Can’t run Linux if the parts are too expensive to even get in the first place.

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  • [–] 21 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Software needs hardware Linux dose nothing but make it easier for them.

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  • [–] 11 points 10 months ago

    My point is that there is existing hardware already out on the secondary market for cheap, and can run most of what anybody needs. All those machines that aren't up to snuff for Windows 11 standards don't need to go into the landfill.

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Anybody hold onto all their old electronics just in case in spite of the financial/resource “waste”?

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago

    No but I do hold onto old electronics because I grew up with my grandparents and they had WW2 wartime rationing mentality about saving everything. Also my grandfather also an incredibly cheap bastards at times too

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  • [–] 54 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    First it was GPUs because crypto, then this. Wonder what useless thing the tech bros will cover up with in a few years!

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  • [–] 101 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    Article in 2027:

    Keyboard prices soared this month, as tech giants pivoted from failed AI projects to employing hordes of monkeys typing randomly. One CEO was quoted as saying, “Just a few trillion more dollars, and I think our random typing model could reproduce the lost contents of the Library of Alexandria.”

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  • [–] 31 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    Good luck...

    Even when the bubble bursts, they're going to have an insane amount of computing power just sitting there, it will get sold off in bankruptcy proceedings, and some company will gobble it up and operate at a loss while continuing to secure future supply contracts.

    There's a very real chance that we're witnessing the slow death of home computing.

    The way things shake out it might end up being prohibitively expensive compared to cloud computing, and once that's the norm they price gouge like Walmart did to destroy small businesses.

    Instead of dropping a couple grand for a PC every couple years, we'll have steady contracts paying for month at a time indefinitely.

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  • [–] 3 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Nah. Web devs will create even more bloated web pages to keep home computing in business.

    For real though, most people don’t need that much computing power, and we reached the plateau 12 years ago. That’s why we’re seeing crypto and AI grifts happen. They recentralize decentralized systems. The elites are striking back.

    You know the saying“information wants to be free; information wants to be expensive”? This is the expensive part where people try to horde knowledge by making it inaccessible to everyday people.

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  • [–] 8 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    I think it's a lost cause. Essentially both crypto and AI were big because someone figured out how to offload shit to a GPU efficiently. There's probably a ton of other appllications for GPUs we haven't even tapped.

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  • [–] 6 points 10 months ago

    Serial compute isn't doing the double-every-18-months-in-speed since something like the early 2000s.

    Unlike with serial compute, not all problems can be solved, run faster, with parallel compute. But at some point, unless we figure out some sort of new way to play with physics, we pretty much have to move to parallel compute where we can if we want much more performance.

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