Normally I'd agree but domestic considerations are the main drivers of geo-politics and Trump has ALOT of need to distract his citizenry. Successful military operations historically provide a huge boost in popularity to leadership and Trump craves public adoration like a man who wasn't loved enough as a child. I could rattle off all the other reasons the Trump regime would want a war: weak economy, Epstein files, etc etc so for once I think the oil is a secondary or tertiary motivation.
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