There's a chance it will happen outside the USA.

Deciding to send to the landfill every PC sold after 2018 is a decision that they saw analyzing only numbers from big American corporations. "Anyway they lease the computers and have a refresh every 3-5 years"

But the rest of the world?

Here in Italy I still see people on Windows 7

When I traveled in southeast Asia I saw people using windows XP

Or Brazil, where the import taxes make a windows 11 compatible PC ultra expensive

Regular people and small businesses , especially outside the USA won't simply buy a new PC just because Microsoft and Intel needed the line to go up.