it's hard to predict how the dems will play this, but my read is that republicans have fucked the dog here and are dangerously close to actually eating this entire shutdown and all its consequences in terms of political capital.

polls-as-propaganda are trying hard to pitch this as a democrat led shutdown, but that's real hard for people to square with the GOP owning all 3 branches hard. especially with Trump's perennial victory lap and his insistence since the election that he is the undisputed leader with all the power.

but there's just enough BS to kinda play like dems are somehow responsible and have some hogs believe it.

in reality, senate GOP could immediately rewrite the rules as they have done before to nuke the filibuster and give their simple majority power to end the shut down. but i think they're afraid to, because it would reveal they had the power to end the shutdown all along (polls show deep dissatisfaction with shutdowns).

secondly, and more critically, it might not even end the shutdown because their party is so fractious. it took them forever to elect their own house speaker, and that's some low stakes BS compared to this.

so they've basically painted themselves into a corner and their only way out is to own up to it and take a big swing that might blow up in their faces.

so it seems like they are gonna stick with trying to hang it on dems, but as mentioned, that isn't really working so well despite their messaging discipline.