The US lost in both Vietnam and Afghanistan because occupation is hard. There isn't an army on the planet that can even come close to taking on the US military in open combat, but insurgencies are a completely different animal.

Social media and AI mass surveillance might make a difference, but I kinda doubt it.

I don't think this is where we are headed, but it wouldn't be an automatic win for the military. Unfortunately, the people who end up in charge after an uprising usually end up being worse than the people they replace.