Alright so I sat down and actually looked at the numbers:

According to the California Energy Comission, the total nameplate capacity of california (in 2024) was 89,207 MW. Of this, ~43% (38,686 MW) is supplied by natural gas powerplants. The short answer to the question of when adding electrical utilities will not be a net loss for the state is "when they replace that 38,686MW with renewable power". That's not insurmountable - according to this article from the California Governor's Office itself, in 2024 alone they added 7,000 MW of new renewable nameplate capacity, and over the last 5 years they've added a total of more than 25,000 MW of renewable power!

So the short answer is that, assuming the trend of year-over-year increases in power continues (which is safe), in an optimistic three and a half years this will no longer be a net-loss for the environment. A ~three year lead time on new capacity is honestly not bad, and taking this into account I can't in good faith say that this is a bad or absurd project for them to undertake, and I apologize for not doing this initally.

EDIT: okay so... that was my conclusion. I went back to check my work because I noticed I'd screwed up a conversion (I've converted GW to MW in a couple places just for readability) and... When you start checking the source data being reported, it's really apparent that the 7000MW figure reported by Gov. Newsom's office includes, yes, the additional power generation capacity added to the state's grid but it also includes the nameplate capacity of all the new battery storage facilities.

...

Yeah. So. From 2023 to 2024, there was a reduction in natural gas production of 1,090 MW, and additional capacity added of 2507 MW (2,375 MW from PV, 132 MW from Wind), for a net increase of 1372 MW. New battery facilities are important, but they only serve to smooth the load and supplement renewable generation, they don't add anything to the actual power generation capacity. At this rate, it's going to take around 14 years for there to be enough capacity added to fully replace the power generated by natural gas, and that's completely ignoring that power demands will be steadily increasing.

I don't... actually know what to say about this. I'm not anti-renewables, my own home has limited solar capacity (I am not in a great spot for it, sadly) but I'm a hearty and vocal proponent of it. I just came in here to present a point about how it's technically better to hold off on upgrades like this, because it's important for us to scrape out every last iota of efficiency if we're going to save what's left of the planet. I wasn't really anticipating that a full 2/3 of the lauded 7,000 MW of renewable energy that's been added is just... made up.

I'm actually tearing up a little. I don't know what we're going to do, guys. This is all just so completely fucked up.