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M8.2 solar flare, Strong G4 geomagnetic storm watch
(www.spaceweatherlive.com)
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this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2025
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Space Weather
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Space weather is a branch of space physics and aeronomy, or heliophysics, concerned with the varying conditions within the Solar System and its heliosphere. This includes the effects of the solar wind, especially on the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere. Though physically distinct, space weather is analogous to the terrestrial weather of Earth's atmosphere (troposphere and stratosphere). The term "space weather" was first used in the 1950s and popularized in the 1990s. Later, it prompted research into "space climate", the large-scale and long-term patterns of space weather.
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I learn about an astronomical event BEFORE it happens?! Pretty exciting, I often learn about space events after they already happened ๐ Now I even get a few hours to prepare.
Is there some sensor that I can use to detect this? Will it produce some characteristic radio signal or X-ray pattern? How do I tune in?
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/
https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3947-ar14100-m8-20250531-cme-g4-watch/&do=getNewComment There's a really good comment in the first 2-3 pages that explains a lot.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental
Happy hunting. This is a spectacular one. :)
Very interesting indeed! Unfortunately I was not able to catch up with the jargon before the flux rope with a stable positive Bz component arrived, so I am not yet quite sure what that means, but I hope it turns southwards ๐
Going through charts, I see that a lot have very short time cut-offs. At most I see data from 2 days back, so I don't know if the numbers I see in the charts are special or not... Do you know if there is a way to see historical data plots of these values?
G Scale: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
You can see the predictions forecast at the top of any of the NOAA Aurora dashboard pages.
Prediction oval: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental
Data:
Check NASA and ESA for boatloads more, you'll probably have to search for the specific satellites. -> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Solar_System_probes
You'll have to visit the sites of the ground stations that are shown on spaceweather to get their data as well. It's out there.
New satellites:
Lmao, like I said, I've still got hope. Last I checked, NOAA was predicting a G4 (logorithmic G1-5 categories, kind of like hurricane ratings) storm at a 75% confidence through tomorrow. Look for kp 7+, southern winds, and a G4 storm rating on the main page tonight. The tool tips are really good.
Btw, the NOAA does really awesome predictive forecast maps of where you can see it, but I've caught them far beyond the oval, so it is quite conservative I think.
Yeah, there's a ton of data around and actually quite a few tools for space weather on github as well. People have been trying to figure out the nuances of solar cycles pretty intensely. Also, a new satellite was launched recently that is really powerful for solar monitoring. I'll post the links in the next comment.
A moderator made a really good post about flux ropes here: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/3947-ar14100-m8-20250531-cme-g4-watch/page/24/
Oh yes, the big ones that put on shows tend to come around fall and spring equinoxes.
Ahh cool! Actually it was one of that mod's latest post that I had just read before making my flux rope comment ๐