I'm guessing they're fruitlessly trying to use the Socratic method to make you critically examine the wild claims you're making. Even if a victory for Ukraine were still possible as you say, this in no way means Putin is all but defeated and just hiding it. The Russians are not "banking" on Trump pulling back from Ukraine or the EU being unable to meaningfully contribute - both of those things were fully expected a year ago and we can clearly observe right now. Waging a bloody war of attrition until a more favorable geopolitical situation arrives is precisely the stratagem at play here, and is certainly not what losing looks like.
Unless you’re willing to say right here that Russia is an aggressor nation and that the nation, along with its authoritarian leader Putin, is completely in the wrong,
Y'all get that this isn't a cartoon, right? Finding out who the "bad guy" is doesn't mean they're going to lose. Every single one of these things you wrote can be true about Putin and Russia and it still wouldn't budge the situation on the ground at all, your condemnation isn't magic. You can certainly take your ball and leave if you don't want to talk to people with a different analysis, but you can't go to Narnia.