Image of destruction in Mandalay, Myanmar, from Al Jazeera.
As if the ongoing civil war wasn't enough, Myanmar has now been struck by a very powerful earthquake, resulting in 2000 deaths and thousands more injured as of the time of writing. Estimates are that the death toll could reach 10,000. Infrastructure like roads and bridges are damaged, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. The earthquake struck during Eid prayers, resulting in even higher casualties as several mosques collapsed. 20 million people already required humanitarian assistance in Myanmar, and now the situation there will be even worse. International rescue teams have rushed into the country, and aid is being raised, though with USAID experiencing the... changes that it is, the United States will be of even more limited help than usual. So far, China has sent $14 million, while USAID has supplied $2 million. In Thailand, the death toll seems considerably lower, though there has still been significant damage; a skyscraper under construction collapsed in Bangkok.
Myanmar is located very close to the boundary between the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. In particular, the country is divided in two by the north-south oriented Sagaing fault. This fault is typically strike-slip; that is, each side of the fault moves horizontally past each other. The earthquake's depth was 10 kilometers, which is pretty shallow, and its proximity to the surface amplified the felt force of the earthquake. Additionally, the soft soil in this region tends to further amplify seismic waves through a process called liquefaction. Combine all this with the lackluster building codes due to many years of impoverishment and civil wars, and this explains why the death toll, and the expense to the country in general to repair damage, will probably be extremely high.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So I think I will preemptively say this since some people have posted about Trumps whole trade war thing working.
So the big one.....
"What if he's right and industries will move to the US?"
It is extremely unlikely because of a few things:
'You can only build a massive factory if you know those tariffs are here to stay.'
That means the USA will have to keep those tariffs for a long time. Building a large factory like one that can employ thousands of people takes several years, training those will again take years. We can look at the TSMC plants that were built in Japan took 3 years to build and get going. This means those tariffs that incentivize capitalists to move production have to do so because they know that those tariffs will be there for 10 years.
Even with a 50% tariff it will still be cheaper to import than to produce locally.
I feel like this one is self explanatory but like I'm sorry but the only way those factories come back is if the USA increases its prison population, aka its pool of slave labor, at least tenfold. Something which I doubt the USA can actually do, not because it lacks the capacity for cruelty but simply because it lacks the capacity with all the gutting of the government.
Once counter tariffs start the US' own industries will get hit hard.
The US currently imports iron to turn it into steel, Iron imports are already part of those tariffs so now the cost per iron has gone up by 50%, making it more expensive to produce which cuts into profit margins which are further cut into because other nations will just tariff US steel back, essentially this hurts any industry that needs to import to start producing much more than the people in government probably think.
I mean effectively shutting down trade means that the US economy will have less goods in the economy per worker.
That means US workers will be effectively poorer even with a job in the absolute best case scenario that is not going to happen. Which once it starts to crystallize will get the hogs out and yelling about stuff and unless Trump does do some fascist grab of power, he'll lose pathetically to some democrat called Chak Tham Greenly because Trump didn't deliver the treats. Which means those tariffs are on a 4 year timer.
So with there being a 4 year timer most companies and capitalists will see the writing on the wall if Trump continues. What I think is that a lot of capitalists are currently deep in denial but that torpor will only stick around for so long, and as much as it pains capital to leave the current hegemon it's not like capital always was centered around the USA at one point it was centered in London, capital will move and make it's new nest somewhere else.
Edit: I should also add that the TSMC plant was ONE plant and not a total reorganization of their economy and again about a thousand people, magnitudes smaller than what Trump is trying, and with construction goods readily available and not being you know also tariffed.
Who will come out ahead in all this chaos? Is it really just the dumbest rich people following their ideology off a cliff or is there some angle people aren't seeing? Are the richest people just going to consolidate their power by buying up failed businesses? What are the odds of more stimulus checks, so he can control people's treats like the way immortan joe controls water?
Well if we think about it as a fascist strategy, the ruling class knows that their base is the only Americans who would actually put up a fight against the state, and that they are totally enamored by Trump and so won't do so. Instead, that base will turn their anger about the economy being terrible on trans people, migrants, and Muslims, keeping them busy and satisfied despite their economic situation not improving. Knowing that there is no other group who will fight them, the ruling class can destroy the economy, buy the dip and get richer. This economic destruction will force workers to have to take shittier, lower paying jobs and replace migrant laborers who are being deported. So the workforce we are losing to deportation will be replaced by desperate citizens, resolving the contradiction of kicking out the only people who had previously been interested in that essential work. In the end, you have a great consolidation of wealth for the top, the domestic economy survives the loss of migrant labor, the poorest people are further locked into endless work and thus won't have time or energy to think about anything else, and anyone further left than the proud boys are feckless and will accept whatever is happening without a fight, hoping that they'll get kamala in on the next time and everything will go back to normal. On top of all that, destroying welfare, social security and such is a quasi eugenicist purge of undesirables who cost the state money, and the ones who survive that loss will be the ones picking fruit and cleaning burger kings. By the time the next presidential election happens, most of the state will already be irreversibly privatized.
This seems plausible to me. I just don't know if they realize how bad it's going to get for people before it's seen through to the end. Or if the forces who aren't on board with all this are powerful enough to put a stop to it.
I imagine they do know because they are green lighting horrendous shit every day for a long time. I don't think they see it as getting bad for people because they don't see us as people, just units in their assembly lines. The silver lining is that this is the rope they sell us to hang themselves with, it will absolutely accelerate the downfall of capitalism and imperialism and, unless they decide to start a nuclear war, will open up opportunities for non Western nations to have breakthroughs. I used to think it would open up similarly for western workers but I don't think it will since we are very devout worshippers at the altar of treats. Even if they dry up we will spend years pleading to get them back instead of organizing. I hope I'm wrong about that
I mean considering how all the richest people are 'more anxious than ever before', this might just be the dumbest people following their ideology off a cliff. I think people here sometimes have this thing where just like with Biden we assume that Trump has some 8D chess masterplan, when really his thinking is 'Trade Bad, Tariff Good'. If Trump wasn't the president of the current hegemon he'd be compared to Milei.
The people profiting right now are those that can do insider trading. The richest people are suffering as are businesses, like stuff like Nike is fucked under the current tariffs because again there's no way for them to move production back to the US and wherever they put their manufacturing in will have huge tariffs like they are currently in SEA which got hit with huge tariffs.
Rich buying up all the assets at a discount
I think dropshippers petit bougie revolt (including influencers of all persuasions) will kill tariffs in like a week, americans yearn for cheap apparel
*but also leftists consistently underestimate usa manufacturing, usa makes lots of stuff irl, just not mass market trinkets, but rather means of production and niche haute tech, high margin stuff. And it only requires 9% of working population. The mass market stuff would require to like quadruple that number (textiles and gadgets especially, the ai motherfuckers still haven't done automated sneaker line)
I mean they do make stuff but again if you make some high tech thing you need components and those components are imported. That's the reason why I mentioned steel since it's the easiest one, but I think same thing happened under Biden. Ban DJI from selling their drones, China bans sending drone parts to the USA then an american firm making military drones can't produce since they source almost all parts from china.
I agree with your overall narrative, this is a good comment but I would disagree with this particular point, it is just not compelling at all.
The US got into this position exactly because the EU as a whole was already on borrowed time, German capital was never able to compete with the UK given their limited imperialist capabilities. I'm sure you know the context for WW1 and WW2 as well but if we think about "alternatives" it realy is TINA. The EU is not better today then it was even 150 years ago, the Eurozone project is already a second attempt at keeping it afloat 25 years ago and now German capital dominates the EU with France playing second fiddle and minor yet also incompetent imperialist ambitions. Nowadays given the US complete dominance over German neoliberalism this is a dead argument. Germany would need to reignite its own imperialist ambitions, align itself with Russia and China to even begin to mount a challenge to the US, it wont happen, necessary steps like e.g re-starting their nuclear project would take years if not decades.
The UK itself lacks the tools to take over the hegemonic status again, they're not the same naval superpower as they were and UK capitalism is in decline, London is already a deeply rotten financial capital based on rentier capital specialy given the UK's relationship with EU industry and labor movement(see Brexit context).
If we look outside the west then there should be no argument in favor of e.g Singapore or Japan. These countries are not capable of meaningful necessary reforms to oppose the US.
Other BRICS countries are decades if not a century away from such ambitions and in any case India and Brazil will get fucked by climate change, along with the rest of the world in less than 20 years.
By process of elimination we arrive at China and China taking a position at the center of capitalism is not exactly the rhetoric we should be aiming for either.
Sure so let me agree with some of your points, the Eurozone project is pretty much dead in the water that said, German capital and German Imperial ambitions are ramping up, and they are ramping up quick. I may be known as the resident Germany hater but not for no reason, SPD pivoted hard and is now basically the same as the democrats in the US, so at least the political will is there, especially with AfD now tied with the CDU during polls (They gained another 4% since the elections). They can also imo achieve their imperial ambition with their massive military spending which has widespread approval from pretty much every party, they say 'We need to protect ourselves from the Russians' and then will use their tanks in the global south I guarantee it. I also think capital is honestly better served during this period by germany since germans worship LAW and LAWFULLNESS.
France will play second fiddle but we forget that it up until recently still had significant control of west african states, with the help of germany they can take back control and they do have nukes so a more equal evil partnership is incredibly likely. I think the coming weeks and months are going to be very telling but depending what comes out of the meeting in Vietnam between the EU and China I think there might be a very sudden shift if France and Germany assert themselves, and I would say Germany is massively building up while France will get to be a ship in that rising tide.
I think you are understimating one thing about the Eurozone which I think is extremely hard to quantify which is how hard Germany managed to 'subjugate' or 'pacify' eastern europe. Greece is the big example of what happens when you defy them and that keeps those countries in line. For all the frogcalling people like to do about Orban he does keep the cheap labor in his country cheap which is why the sort of political and economic warfare the EU is capable of doing hasn't been done against him.