I didn't even mention the Second World War, because the first would've been different enough to make it having happened in a familiar form into unlikely.

The US arms shipments to Britain, and later after the gun runner ship Lustiana, hoping to use its civilian passengers as a shield in breach of the rules of war, led to American popular support for joining with the Allies, which they eventually did to push Germany to defeat despite the newly Sovietised Russia withdrawing.

And it might be that Dixieland and Yankeeland would support the Allies and Axis, and WWI would have had an American theatre, too opening in 1915 or so. And any major war fought in North America in the 20th century would totally alter the form US neo imperial power and hegemony took, if any at all, in the latter part of the 20th century.

As a minimum, a different US would alter how Versaille and Balfour treaties were made and what who agreed to.

Did you forget about the part where the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor? You couldn't have kept the US out of World War 2 with a trillion dollar payoff. The country wanted blood.