891
Nvidia falls 14% in premarket trading as China's DeepSeek triggers global tech sell-off (www.cnbc.com)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
329 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/53805638

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 37 points 2 years ago (6 children)

It still rely on nvidia hardware why would it trigger a sell-off? Also why all media are picking up this news? I smell something fishy here...

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 12 child comments
    •
  • [–] 33 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    The way I understood it, it's much more efficient so it should require less hardware.

    Nvidia will sell that hardware, an obscene amount of it, and line will go up. But it will go up slower than nvidia expected because anything other than infinite and always accelerating growth means you're not good at business.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 7 points 2 years ago

    Back in the day, that would tell me to buy green.

    Of course, that was also long enough ago that you could just swap money from green to red every new staggered product cycle.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 22 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    It requires only 5% of the same hardware that OpenAI needs to do the same thing. So that can mean less quantity of top end cards and it can also run on less powerful cards (not top of the line).

    Should their models become standard or used more commonly, then nvidis sales will drop.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 8 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Doesn’t this just mean that now we can make models 20x more complex using the same hardware? There’s many more problems that advanced Deep Learning models could potentially solve that are far more interesting and useful than a chat bot.

    I don’t see how this ends up bad for Nvidia in the long run.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 8 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Honestly none of this means anything at the moment. This might be some sort of calculated trickery from China to give Nvidia the finger, or Biden the finger, or a finger to Trump's AI infrastructure announcement a few days ago, or some other motive.

    Maybe this "selloff" is masterminded by the big wall street players (who work hand-in-hand with investor friendly media) to panic retail investors so they can snatch up shares at a discount.

    What I do know is that "AI" is a very fast moving tech and shit that was true a few months ago might not be true tomorrow - no one has a crystal ball so we all just gotta wait and see.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    There could be some trickery on the training side, i.e. maybe they spent way more than $6M to train it.

    But it is clear that they did it without access to the infra that big tech has.

    And on the run side, we can all verify how well it runs and people are also running it locally without internet access. There is no trickery there.

    They are 20x cheaper than OpenAI if you run it on their servers and if you run it yourself, you only need a small investment in relatively affordable servers.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [+] 17 points 2 years ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)
    [deleted]
  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 8 child comments
    •
  • [–] 21 points 2 years ago*

    Thank the fucking sky fairies actually, because even if AI continues to mostly suck it'd be nice if it didn't swallow up every potable lake in the process. When this shit is efficient that makes it only mildly annoying instead of a complete shitstorm of failure.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 6 points 2 years ago (3 children)

    While this is great, the training is where the compute is spent. The news is also about R1 being able to be trained, still on an Nvidia cluster but for 6M USD instead of 500

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 6 child comments
    •
  • [–] 5 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    True, but training is one-off. And as you say, a factor 100x less costs with this new model. Therefore NVidia just saw 99% of their expected future demand for AI chips evaporate

    Even if they are lying and used more compute, it's obvious they managed to train it without access to the large amounts of the highest end chips due to export controls.

    Conservatively, I think NVidia is definitely going to have to scale down by 50% and they will have to reduce prices by a lot, too, since VC and government billions will no longer be available to their customers.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
    •
  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    True, but training is one-off. And as you say, a factor 100x less costs with this new model. Therefore NVidia just saw 99% of their expected future demand for AI chips evaporate

    It might also lead to 100x more power to train new models.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    I’m not sure. That’s a very static view of the context.

    While china has an AI advantage due to wider adoption, less constraints and overall bigger market, the US has higher tech, and more funds.

    OpenAI, Anthropic, MS and especially X will all be getting massive amounts of backing and will reverse engineer and adopt whatever advantages R1 had. Which while there are some it’s still not a full spectrum competitor.

    I see the is as a small correction that the big players will take advantage of to buy stock, and then pump it with state funds, furthering the gap and ignoring the Chinese advances.

    Regardless, Nvidia always wins. They sell the best shovels. In any scenario the world at large still doesn’t have their Nvidia cluster, think Africa, Oceania, South America, Europe, SEA who doesn’t necessarily align with Chinese interests, India. Plenty to go around.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Extra funds are only useful if they can provide a competitive advantage.

    Otherwise those investments will not have a positive ROI.

    The case until now was built on the premise that US tech was years ahead and that AI had a strong moat due to high computer requirements for AI.

    We now know that that isn't true.

    If high compute enables a significant improvement in AI, then that old case could become true again. But the prospects of such a reality happening and staying just got a big hit.

    I think we are in for a dot-com type bubble burst, but it will take a few weeks to see if that's gonna happen or not.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago

    Maybe, but there is incentive to not let that happen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “they” have unpublished tech that will be rushed out.

    The ROI doesn’t matter, it wasn’t there yet it’s the potential for it. The Chinese AIs are also not there yet. The proposition is to reduce FTEs, regardless of cost, as long as cost is less.

    While I see OpenAi and mostly startups and VC reliant companies taking a hit, Nvidia itself as the shovel maker will remain strong.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    That's becoming less true. The cost of inference has been rising with bigger models, and even more so with "reasoning models".

    Regardless, at the scale of 100M users, big one-off costs start looking small.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago*

    And you should, generally we are amidst the internet world war. It's not something fishy but digital rotten eggs thrown around by the hundreds.

    The only way to remain sane is to ignore it and scroll on. There is no winning versus geopolitical behemoths as a lone internet adventurer. It's impossible to tell what's real and what isn't
    the first casualty of war is truth

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent