this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria's collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like "this is bad" and "Assad is fucking up"; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don't know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah's assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad's time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


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Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
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Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

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https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 60 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (4 children)

Ex-defense chief suspected of plotting war with North Korea to justify martial law

Kim Yong-hyun is said to have called for strikes on sites from which North Korea was launching trash balloons and sending drones over Pyongyang

spoilerhttps://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1172239.html

There are mounting suspicions that former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun intended to justify the declaration of martial law or a state of united defense by instigating a military conflict with North Korea by ordering strikes on the sites from which the North was launching trash-filled balloons and flying unmanned drones to Pyongyang.

Democratic Party lawmaker Park Beom-kye revealed Monday that he received a tip-off from a military whistleblower that the unmanned drones North Korea claimed Seoul had sent to Pyongyang in October were indeed sent on orders of the South Korean military — more specifically, on the orders of the former defense minister.

“The Defense Counterintelligence Command, formerly led by Yeo In-hyeong, yet another high school classmate of Kim’s, planned the specifics of the operation,” Park claimed, suggesting that it was “clear that this plan was conceived to offer a pretext for the invocation of martial law.”

A reference document on the operation of martial law troops and a joint investigation headquarters issued in November under the orders of Yeo, made public by the Democratic Party on Sunday, show that the Defense Counterintelligence Command reviewed the possibility of the simultaneous declaration of martial law and united defense to execute military responses and control public order and security in the event of a crisis, such as armed conflict with North Korea.

The document claimed that martial law and united defense could be declared simultaneously in the case of “enemy infiltration, provocation and domestic circumstances.”

According to current law, martial law is to be declared “in time of war, incident or other equivalent national emergency,” while united defense — a way of consolidating the country’s defense elements under a unified command — should be declared to respond to the “enemy’s infiltration, provocation, or threat of infiltration or provocation.” Both must be declared by the president.

Before publicizing the contents of the document, Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Ki-heon claimed to have received information on how, only one week prior to the declaration of martial law, Kim had ordered Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairperson Adm. Kim Myung-soo to “fire warning shots before striking launch sites of North Korea’s trash-filled balloons” if any such balloons were seen floating in South Korean skies.

For that to happen, South Korean soldiers would have to attack North Korea’s southwestern Hwanghae region, where the trash balloons are being sent from, which could easily escalate into a limited war.

In response, the Joint Chiefs of Staff denied allegations about such orders on Saturday, claiming that “no orders intending to escalate conflict took place.” However, it did not deny the discussions on targeting launch sites, saying, “The military conducts discussions on various operational situations from time to time.”

According to military officials, Kim Yong-hyun expressed a desire to strike the launch sites of North Korea’s trash balloons, but Kim Myung-soo responded by saying that such a move would be inconsistent with the current response policy, which stipulates that such strikes should only take place in case of tangible harm.

In September, as trash-filled balloons continued to cross the border, the Joint Chiefs had said that the South Korean military would take “decisive military action if it was determined that serious damage to our national security has occurred or if North Korea crosses a line.”

The Joint Chiefs said they were unable to confirm information in response to questions concerning the unmanned drones supposedly flown into Pyongyang.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter

[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Kim Yong-hyun

fucking Waluigi-ass naming scheme, who's writing this season of geopolitics

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 week ago

Maybe he was tired of being teased by how similar the names are.

[–] [email protected] 35 points 1 week ago

Starting an apocalyptic nuclear war to advance your career in the moments before annihilation, a true galaxy brain 4d chess move

[–] [email protected] 34 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Wow I think we witnessed a major hinge point come and pass

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 week ago

Yeah this was... Something. There is a lot more going on and I suspect DPRK is correct that the plans to start a war with them that they've been sounding off on for the last year or so is real and occurring.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 week ago

We missed the 3000+ news thread where Yoon actually restarted the Korean civil war in another timeline just narrowly.