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Climate change projections (slrpnk.net)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by [M] to c/memes@slrpnk.net
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[–] [S] 31 points 2 years ago* (11 children)
  1. Sorry I had to do a ninja edit: the original post I stole this from didn't have the text on the image, but was rather a retweet of text post with this image (e.g., nested post)
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  • [–] 14 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    I see, the meme makes a lot more sense now. I was like this isn’t a meme it’s just a map of the future of Florida lol.

    That said this seems very extreme and exaggerated for 2075. Sea level rise is one of the slowest aspects of climate change. Generally the worst case is thought to be about 2 meters by 2100 which is significant but not enough to affect non-coastal areas.

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  • [–] 10 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

    For fun I did a quick check and based on GEBCO elevation data this looks like about 20m sea rise (I'm guessing exactly -- I assume whoever made the image picked a round number).

    Hacked-together graphic showing Florida with sea level rise causing approximately the same coastline as the OP.

    I could have posted what 2m looks like but at this scale it just looks like current Florida.

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  • [–] 6 points 2 years ago*

    20m is if I remember correctly about what the melting of the greenland glacier will cause, which is pretty much locked in already. It will not be 2075 for sure, but probably this millenium.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 years ago (3 children)

    2075

    And likely much earlier.

    Due to the nature of science and how any predictions and projections it makes needs to be couched in exceedingly conservative tones, it has become a running gag in climate science that everything will happen “much sooner than expected”. Because invariably, it does. Sometime hundreds of years sooner than expected.

    Hell, it was first thought that the AMOC wouldn’t collapse for centuries, and now more accurate projections put it as being sometime between 2025 and 2085, with a “most likely due date” of some time in the early 2050s. And this is still an exceedingly conservative estimate. Who wants to bet that it’ll happen much sooner than even that?

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  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    2025 is in less than 60 days. Much sooner than that would be like tomorrow.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago*

    2025 is in less than 60 days. Much sooner than that would be like tomorrow.

    My last reference was the 2050s “most likely due date”. That is bound to get revised radically towards the present, as more data is collected.

    And at the very least, that entire range is going to be compressed towards the present as well.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago

    My understanding is we have evidence of slowdown but really don’t have the historical data to know when AMOC stops being driven, and it could take a century or two for the water to actually stop circulating.

    Some outrage headlines have claimed it’s already collapsed and I don’t know if we have data to disagree with that

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