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Ohh shit.
So how much overlap is there with the previous Helene path?
Minimal. Helene went north, and really only hit the pan handle area, Milton is going East and is going to pass through the middle of Florida.
Even though it was like 100 miles off shore, the Tampa Bay area had an 8 foot storm surge with Helene that killed 12 people and ruined tens of thousands of homes and businesses. There are piles of debris everywhere along the coast that are going to become projectiles in hurricane force winds of they can't be picked up in time. Almost the entire western coast of Florida saw significant impact from Helene
That's still probably better than if there was debris from a direct hit.
Well yes, two direct hits would be worse. Was just saying Helene had a pretty severe impact on the areas that are going to be hit directly this time
At least mid Florida is mostly higher elevation for dealing with the storm surge. The winds will be brutal.
One of the things I’m wondering about is whether Helene chopped up the water and caused some overturning/cooling that may lower surface temps.
And if it did (or did so to a meaningful degree), is that helping to temper Milton before it makes landfall?
And I guess I’m commenting here because you seemed so confident. (Maybe you’re just making it up as you go along, too. Who knows?!)
That's probably why everyone is super split on the landfall category of the hurricane.
That should play an impact and overcast and heavy rain should make for a less welcoming Florida.
However we have seen that shallower waters by the coast have been very very hot lately and do a lot to bump up hurricanes as they near the shallows and it could intensify the storm again as it nears land.
Tampa doesn't get hit directly by storms and they don't generally form to category 5 hurricanes in about 12 hours in the gulf of Mexico so there is a lot of new science and prediction work to be done here so it's a lot of guessing till it does.
Little, this is going to hit Florida directly (moving east from the gulf) and then go into the Atlantic. It won't make it into the rest of the country, fortunately.
Unless it does one of those classic 180s where it swings back around and hits the atlantic
For direct path on landfall, probably none unless it turns northwards. But the west coast of florida just ate the rain, storm surge and wind from Helene and will now get the full brunt of Milton.
The panhandle is getting a lot of rain, but there is a lot of overlap with Ian's path... namely our house :/
A lot of overlap from the flooding, more wind from Milton. I know a few people who have had to gut their houses already from Helene and expect it to flood again this week.