why do you believe that the crappy monetisation practices of these mobile gaming pay to win companies would bring the industry as a whole down?
Well, let's look at Starfield. I don't hate it nearly as much as you do, but I definitely agree it has flaws. But now imagine that some of these hyper-monetization practices had invaded it, on top of the other problems. Like, if you had to do some horrible grind to get fuel for your ship, unleeeesssssss you wanted to pay for some Bethesda Bux, to make that process go faster.
And now imagine almost every other single player RPG game has similar shit, crammed into it. Say anything you want about Todd Howard, I do think he would fight tooth and nail to prevent such a thing. And so would every other traditional RPG developer. But they don't really own their companies, anymore. They've all had to sell out to bigger entities, to keep putting food on the tables of their employees. And even the ones who remain independent aren't entirely above the pressures of the publishers.
So imagine that they can't hold the flood back anymore, and the mobile-style ultra-monetization shit gets into all the RPG games, even more into every online FPS game, into all the single player FPSes and Boomer Shooters, even somehow into sidescrolling platformers and Metroidvanias. And adventure games. And every other genre you can think of.
If all the major releases become completely overburdened with this shit, people might just decide "welp, I'm out. I'm leaving the hobby."
That could cause a crash. Hopefully, true indie games could pull us out of the spiral, but I'm not sure of that. Especially in a scenario like I'm talking about. If there was a real exodus of millions of players, away from gaming, the industry would have to contract massively. Then all those devs who are currently employed by major studios would found a bunch of little indie studios. Some people would applaud that as an unalloyed benefit, but they would all be competing for a much smaller pool of money, and maybe none of them would be able to remain solvent.
So, again, you get the potential for a devastating crash.