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The Trade War Isn’t Over (paulkrugman.substack.com)
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Virginia and Steve from Macro N Cheese Podcast/Real Progressives join Justin and Jeremy in a discussion of Modern Monetary Theory, how it can be used as a radicalizing tool, as well as what it means in the grand scheme of global economics.

The episode intro tries to summarize what modern monetary theory (MMT) is, but unfortunately somewhat flubs it by framing it in return on investment (ROI) terms.

Some relevant YouTube videos:

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US has had incredible success so far this year in further colonizing Panama, and made big subjugations of Columbia too, in terms of deportations cooperation.

Columbia is key to expanding Pacific/Atlantic trade with a railway if Panama is subjugated to refuse the ideal route. Canal capacity is reduced from drought, and global warming is designed to make more drought in Panama.

US has funded anti-BRI terrorism and sabotage throughout the world. Nowhere as aggressive as Panama. Panama government cooperation is certain to doom its people to permanent poverty.

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There is still BS fentanyl tariffs. China only slightly higher than other 2 biggest US trade partners.

I don't expect any energy, agriculture, or boeing purchases by China until fentanyl tariffs removed. Same with Chinese mineral export restrictions.

Objectively, US looks weak to walk back its measures, that were, somehow, supposed to unite world on its side, while getting nothing in return.

Would be hilarious if other nations get liberation day tariffs for 1 month while China doesn't, but if it was stupid the first time, and US is weak, then only bigger losers like UK, agreeing to buy more US stuff seems about right.

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Invisible Hand (feddit.org)
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Can we replace the word "tariffs" with "the invisible hand of the market"?

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US maximalism vs Japan suggests that other trade deals are not anywhere close either. US is also threatening allies on datacenter/AI access, that civility towards China would fix.

Canada is the most braindead auto fight. US has a (small) trade surplus with Canada, and making US cars more expensive with metal tariffs and supply chain turmoil, is not going to make Canadians buy US cars even if they didn't feel attacked.

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China’s technological ascent over the West stems from a fundamental divergence in economic philosophies. Western capitalism, constrained by a theoretical framework that prioritizes ideological justifications for elite power over empirical analysis, has created a system divorced from material reality.

Marx famously argued that dominant class interests suppress truth in favor of false ideology. Today, Western economics is dominated by marginalist theories that mythologize the capitalist class as the engine of progress. By rebranding capitalists as "individual entrepreneurs" who supposedly balance markets and drive growth through sheer creativity, this narrative serves class interests at the expense of truth. The marginalist focus on supply-demand dynamics ignores the material forces behind real economic growth: socialized labor, circulating capital, and state-driven R&D. Empirical data confirms this disconnect. Total Factor Productivity, often cited as proof of "entrepreneurial creativity", accounts for a tiny percentage of growth in both advanced and developing economies. If individual entrepreneurship were the decisive force, TFP would dominate growth statistics. Instead, its minimal contribution reveals the marginalist framework’s failure to align with reality.

The West’s dogmatic reliance on markets and entrepreneurship has led to myopic decision-making that prioritizes corporate profits over sustainable development. The ongoing tariff war is a perfect example of this problem. Rather than fostering innovation or bringing back industries, these tariffs have instead harmed the working class paving the way to a recession.

Western economies are fixated on short-term profit maximization leading to underinvest in R&D and infrastructure. Private capitalists prioritize returns over foundational research, leaving critical innovations to market forces. By contrast, China’s model treats R&D as a collective, state-guided endeavor. China accelerates technological progress by channeling resources into strategic sectors and fostering public-private partnerships. For example, its National Laboratory system and Huawei’s state-backed R&D have outpaced Western firms in critical areas such as 5G tech, while US corporate R&D spending as a share of GDP has stagnated since the 1970s.

At its core, an economy should organize human effort to enhance societal well-being, reduce toil, and ensure equitable access to necessities. Yet under capitalism, economies are structured to prioritize the enrichment of an investor class whose wealth grows not through productive labor, but through financial speculation and rent-seeking. This systemic distortion, where money begets more money for those already holding capital, divorces economic activity from its original aim of improving human life.

Marx and Smith both identified the working class as the primary driver of productivity and growth. China’s system operationalizes this insight, recognizing that technological advancement depends on skilled labor, collective organization, and state coordination. Xi Jinping’s emphasis on "common prosperity" and "innovation-driven development" aligns with the material reality, ensuring that workers’ skills and state investments in education and infrastructure fuel progress. Western economies, by contrast, devalue labor through wage stagnation and anti-labour policies, eroding the very human capital needed for innovation.

The marginalist framework’s refusal to engage with class analysis or systemic factors has left Western economies ill-equipped to address crises like the 2008 financial crash or the economic disaster that's currently unfolding. By clinging to the myth of the entrepreneurial individual, they ignore the critical roles of state planning, collective investment, and structural equity. That's the key reason why China’s model, centered on material conditions and collective progress, is now visibly surging ahead of the West.

In the end, the West’s technological stagnation underscores the limits of an economic philosophy that privileges ideology over reality. China’s success lies in its ability to align policy with material forces, proving that growth and innovation thrive when economies serve the working majority.

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⁠In this episode of 1Dime Radio, I am joined by economist Steve Keen to discuss the many myths of “Basic Economics” (Neo-Classical Economics), the end of Neoliberalism, the Trade Wars, Trump Tariffs, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory. In The Backroom, Steve Keen talks about what Karl Marx got wrong, and what he got right, as well as his predictions for human civilization.

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Cash on hand at end of Q1 (not in link) was reportedly half of what was forecast in last statement. $400B instead of $800B

US Debt screaming higher.

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US exports are 2% of China GDP. It is likely to have higher GDP growth than US this year, while the US has shortages of things it cannot quickly replace. LNG, agriculture, aeroplances are easy to replace for China. Humiliating US has more value, than figuring out what they can boost 2% of GDP on.

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