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US maximalism vs Japan suggests that other trade deals are not anywhere close either. US is also threatening allies on datacenter/AI access, that civility towards China would fix.

Canada is the most braindead auto fight. US has a (small) trade surplus with Canada, and making US cars more expensive with metal tariffs and supply chain turmoil, is not going to make Canadians buy US cars even if they didn't feel attacked.

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China’s technological ascent over the West stems from a fundamental divergence in economic philosophies. Western capitalism, constrained by a theoretical framework that prioritizes ideological justifications for elite power over empirical analysis, has created a system divorced from material reality.

Marx famously argued that dominant class interests suppress truth in favor of false ideology. Today, Western economics is dominated by marginalist theories that mythologize the capitalist class as the engine of progress. By rebranding capitalists as "individual entrepreneurs" who supposedly balance markets and drive growth through sheer creativity, this narrative serves class interests at the expense of truth. The marginalist focus on supply-demand dynamics ignores the material forces behind real economic growth: socialized labor, circulating capital, and state-driven R&D. Empirical data confirms this disconnect. Total Factor Productivity, often cited as proof of "entrepreneurial creativity", accounts for a tiny percentage of growth in both advanced and developing economies. If individual entrepreneurship were the decisive force, TFP would dominate growth statistics. Instead, its minimal contribution reveals the marginalist framework’s failure to align with reality.

The West’s dogmatic reliance on markets and entrepreneurship has led to myopic decision-making that prioritizes corporate profits over sustainable development. The ongoing tariff war is a perfect example of this problem. Rather than fostering innovation or bringing back industries, these tariffs have instead harmed the working class paving the way to a recession.

Western economies are fixated on short-term profit maximization leading to underinvest in R&D and infrastructure. Private capitalists prioritize returns over foundational research, leaving critical innovations to market forces. By contrast, China’s model treats R&D as a collective, state-guided endeavor. China accelerates technological progress by channeling resources into strategic sectors and fostering public-private partnerships. For example, its National Laboratory system and Huawei’s state-backed R&D have outpaced Western firms in critical areas such as 5G tech, while US corporate R&D spending as a share of GDP has stagnated since the 1970s.

At its core, an economy should organize human effort to enhance societal well-being, reduce toil, and ensure equitable access to necessities. Yet under capitalism, economies are structured to prioritize the enrichment of an investor class whose wealth grows not through productive labor, but through financial speculation and rent-seeking. This systemic distortion, where money begets more money for those already holding capital, divorces economic activity from its original aim of improving human life.

Marx and Smith both identified the working class as the primary driver of productivity and growth. China’s system operationalizes this insight, recognizing that technological advancement depends on skilled labor, collective organization, and state coordination. Xi Jinping’s emphasis on "common prosperity" and "innovation-driven development" aligns with the material reality, ensuring that workers’ skills and state investments in education and infrastructure fuel progress. Western economies, by contrast, devalue labor through wage stagnation and anti-labour policies, eroding the very human capital needed for innovation.

The marginalist framework’s refusal to engage with class analysis or systemic factors has left Western economies ill-equipped to address crises like the 2008 financial crash or the economic disaster that's currently unfolding. By clinging to the myth of the entrepreneurial individual, they ignore the critical roles of state planning, collective investment, and structural equity. That's the key reason why China’s model, centered on material conditions and collective progress, is now visibly surging ahead of the West.

In the end, the West’s technological stagnation underscores the limits of an economic philosophy that privileges ideology over reality. China’s success lies in its ability to align policy with material forces, proving that growth and innovation thrive when economies serve the working majority.

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⁠In this episode of 1Dime Radio, I am joined by economist Steve Keen to discuss the many myths of “Basic Economics” (Neo-Classical Economics), the end of Neoliberalism, the Trade Wars, Trump Tariffs, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory. In The Backroom, Steve Keen talks about what Karl Marx got wrong, and what he got right, as well as his predictions for human civilization.

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Cash on hand at end of Q1 (not in link) was reportedly half of what was forecast in last statement. $400B instead of $800B

US Debt screaming higher.

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US exports are 2% of China GDP. It is likely to have higher GDP growth than US this year, while the US has shortages of things it cannot quickly replace. LNG, agriculture, aeroplances are easy to replace for China. Humiliating US has more value, than figuring out what they can boost 2% of GDP on.

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Unfortunately it only sells Agriculture, Fossil fuels, airplanes, and war. Plenty of other stores for the first 3. Trump is "setting the price" like its 1999, as if everyone needs Bloomingdales.

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Couldn't find bloomberg or Reuters source. Implication is harm to US producers by having oversupply situation, from both return of pork and no new orders.

Brazil and Spain exports to China surged, and look like a structural shift for US industry decline.

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April 10th decision to disrupt trade with China set in motion a delayed supply chain disaster whose consequences are only now beginning to surface. Once again, the mechanics of this crisis highlight the systemic vulnerabilities of an economic model built on globally dispersed production and just-in-time supply chains.

Container ships departing China after April 10th take 30 days to reach Los Angeles, 45 days to reach Houston or Chicago, and 55 days to reach New York. As a result, the economic fallout from the trade disruption will hit these regions in waves of warehouse layoffs, trucking slowdowns, and product shortages. By May 10th, Los Angeles, the primary US gateway for Chinese imports, will feel the first tremors. Trucking jobs will vanish as fewer containers arrive, idle warehouses will shed workers, and so on. By late May, Chicago and Houston will follow as their rail and sea routes become starved of goods. New York, dependent on the longest shipping times, will linger a bit longer before the effects fully manifest.

Even if the White House reverses course by May 31st and drops tariffs to 0%, the damage has already been done. Assuming an optimistic scenario where Chinese factories immediately resume production, it would still take 30 days to restock Los Angeles. A seven-week policy error has triggered three to four months of economic paralysis, with cascading unemployment and fractured supply chains. This disruption is quite similar to that of the pandemic lockdowns, exposing the fragility of a capitalist system that prioritizes profit-driven efficiency. Just-in-time logistics, designed to minimize inventory, leave no buffer for disruption. And as always, the burden will fall on truckers, warehouse staff, and retail employees who will bear the brunt of these policy failures.

However, it's highly dubious to assume that Chinese factories and workers will docilely resume production as if nothing happened. China's dominance in manufacturing critical goods gives it leverage, and exports to the US account for merely 2% of its GDP. China is well-positioned to weather an economic conflict with minimal domestic impact. On the other hand, a protracted shutdown will devastate US consumers and businesses dependent on Chinese imports.

America's primary economic leverage lies in its consumer market. However, as the US enters a recession, consumption will drop, undermining its very appeal as a trade partner. The reality is that the US is no longer the linchpin of the global economy it once was. It remains a large market, but not an indispensable one. As the US economy continues to shrink, trade-dependent nations will have little choice but to restructure their economies away from reliance on the US and seek new partners. China, already in discussions with the EU and Canada, is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift.

The US is like a driver speeding toward a brick wall, oblivious to the inevitable collision. By the time the crash is acknowledged, braking will be futile. This is the inevitable result of a system that prioritizes profit over resilience and short-term gains over sustainable planning. The coming months will test whether the US can extricate itself from yet another self-inflicted disaster.

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Prohibition wasn’t just a moral crusade—it was a market strategy.

This piece explores how the U.S. government used the 18th Amendment to criminalize behavior for profit, partner with organized crime, and manufacture obedience through scarcity.

When you follow the money, the morality myth crumbles fast.


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