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[–] 7 points 6 hours ago (5 children)

I have owned a car for 30 years, and never got close to $50,000. I once made the poor decision to buy a brand new $19,000 VW in 2009, never again. Only suckers buy new cars.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 hours ago (3 children)

    I had to get something to pull a small trailer (like 2,900 dry weight). The literal cheapest option in 2023 was a Jeep Grand Cherokee and it was 44k sticker. I wish I could find an older pickup but people realize what they have and are charging so damn much for them.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 hours ago (2 children)

    I know the used market can vary by region, but if you live in the US I find it hard to image not being able to find a running 90s f-150/250 for under 5k, or a mint condition one for under 10k

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago

    If I could buy a 90's F250 for that price I wouldn't have just purchased my 2011. It took me six weeks of 4+ hours a day of searching to find a truck that wasn't silly. The car market is bad, the truck market is worse and if you live in the Midwest you get a price bump too.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 hours ago

    Been searching since I had to get that Jeep, most of them in my state (Georgia) are insanely priced because everyone is searching for them. It's probably just the rural nature of this state though.

    I managed to find an '01 Tahoe before the pandemic, but my son adopted it as his first car.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 hours ago

    The car I bought new in 2017 just ticked over 100k miles. I estimate I've spent $50k over these 9+ years on car payments, interest, gasoline, maintenance/wear items, mods, and insurance for something that is parked for 95+% of the time. Ride share cannot beat $0.50/mile yet, I'm hoping my current car can last until it does.

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  • [–] 6 points 7 hours ago (4 children)

    I've taught car maintenance and repair to single soldiers for almost two decades. The issue with the Internet's default to buy used is unless you can repair it yourself or have someone that can work on your car cheaply it might not be the best call.

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  • [–] 5 points 7 hours ago (1 child)

    Hell, even being able to diagnose problems a bit can help avoid being scammed by places recommending unnecessary repairs or maintenance.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 hours ago

    Oh and as someone who worked as the guy who told you all the stuff that needed to be done at a shady dealership, they will definitely recommend whatever they can. And then its $180 and hour for labor and its .5 hours of labor to change an air filter. I couldn't cut it in that world...

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  • [–] 3 points 6 hours ago (1 child)

    For soldiers? So Dodge chargers and Ford mustangs? Ya those will fall apart after a couple years. There are plenty of reliable brands, most of which are not American or European.

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  • [–] 9 points 8 hours ago (2 children)

    Listen, I agree in practice.

    But I would not quote "Unusual Whales" for economic advise. This is an AI account that posts "hot tips" for attention.

    The deliquency rate for auto loans has been in headlines since at least March. This is a big show slow ship and it's bait to assume some AI account is going to tell you the day it goes down.

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    [–] 5 points 9 hours ago (1 child)

    Ban cars from populated areas? That is anti-freedom! This fantastic game lets you explore they joys and freedoms of car ownership: https://store.steampowered.com/app/3031880/Car_Park_Capital/

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  • [–] 20 points 14 hours ago (11 children)

    What I'm reading there is that there's going to be a 2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate) alongside a 2000-style Crash (this time on Generative AI instead of a Net bubble).

    Mind you, it will be centered in the US and other countries will mainly feel side effects.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 hours ago (1 child)

    2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate)

    The 2008 crash was also an auto debt crash. That's why you had Cash-For-Clunkers rolled out in 2009 followed by Obama and Romney arguing over an automotive bailout in the 2012 election.

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  • [–] 9 points 13 hours ago (7 children)

    Combine that with a crash of the USD itself. Also commercial and industrial real estate never got the same protections as home loans post-2008 so there's a shit ton of 2008 style shenanigans concerning offices and industrial plots ready to also blow up.

    There's no more road to kick our can down. We must face the can. The can is our reckoning.

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  • [–] 3 points 9 hours ago*

    Well, the supposedly "temporary" ultra-low interest rates that were the "solution" for the Crisis following the 2008 Crash only really postponned the day of reckonning.

    Further, those and other government measures rewarding Asset Owners (read: the rich) on the backs of those whose Income comes from Work, caused inequality to explode, which means more "unused money" around (every additional €1 of income for the wealthy goes almost entirelly into savings, every additional €1 if income for the poor and working class goes almost entirelly into consumption) and all that extra money was seeking investments, any investments, which was visible in the markets by lower interest rates on treasuries (for example, the famous negative German bund interest rates), lower bond yields (meaning higher prices for the same level of risk), higher stocks and so on up the risk scale, a pumping up of lots and lots of extra investment money which ultimatelly inflated several bubbles at the same time.

    Further, the ultra-low interest rates also made it cheaper to leverage one's investments (i.e. invest with loaned money alongside one's own money), further adding money to those bubbles given the way money is created in the modern monetary system (mainly created by banks when they give loans, with only a small percentage actually created by central banks).

    This, by the way, also explains things like the crypto bubble.

    I really only mentioned the biggest ones I'm aware off, but I bet we'll have a lot of bubbles of all sizes exploding as soon as the first big bubble blows and causes a credit crunch and investment retraction.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago) (5 children)

    a crash of the USD itself

    A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?

    There’s no more road to kick our can down.

    I've been hearing people say this since Reagan. "This is the end of the road! The End of History, even!"

    But what's the alternative? Does the US just pop out of existence? Do all those creditors take a massive inflationary haircut on their outstanding loans? Does the US suddenly shift to an export economy to get... Japanese Yen? Russian Rubbles? Mexican Pesos? Nigerian gold bars?

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  • [–] 1 point 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (4 children)

    A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?

    Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode? Why would a lack of an alternative sustain an unsustainable system which appears to be cracking under it's own weight right now? The US govt being forced to issue debt at unsustainable interest rates is the only cause of death you need if people don't think they'll get their money back. They will figure out an alternative in that situation.

    USD's supremacy isn't just from being the "safest" asset you can hold but also that you need it to buy energy from the middle east, since they agreed to only trade in USD in exchange for US military protection. Also because everybody else uses it. I doubt BRICS will be the alternative though, even if it is a half hearted attempt to get around SWIFT and USD.

    And right now it seems to be gold. China has been dumping US treasuries since 2020 and moving heavily into Gold. France did the same. Althought thats not a viable alternative... there simply isn't enough Gold. In an ideal world we would move towards a Keynsian basket of goods as the international unit of exchange instead of a domestic currency but we'll probably pick the dumbest, least painful in the short term, most painful and debilitating in the long term answer... nobody plants trees anymore.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 hours ago (3 children)

    Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode?

    Because value is relative. In order for the value of the USD to fall, the exchange rate has to rise. And that implies people are trading a surplus of USD for another thing.

    What is that thing?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (2 children)

    The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD diluting its own value because interest rates are so high for US treasuries they enter a death spiral borrowing more (printing) to pay for the borrowing they already did, especially as debt rolls over from 1-2% to 5%+?

    It's not looking good... there's no debate that the debt is growing faster than the US economy. Trump blew up the tacit deal requiring USD for energy. Now UAE and others are willing to trade oil in chinese yuan or rubles. Their security agreements with the US apparently weren't worth the paper they were printed on considering the US did the exact opposite of what they promised to those OPEC nations, in fact they actively caused this dumb war with Iran that's destroying plants and infrastructure in the gulf. Thats worse than reneging on your security promises...

    Do you think the USD is headed in a positive direction? What do you think is going to happen?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 hour ago (1 child)

    The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD

    Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods?

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  • [–] 1 point 58 minutes ago* (last edited 46 minutes ago)

    Lets stay on the topic of your original gripe with my comment, which implied that without an alternative the USD system can't collapse, and you've heard these complaints since the 80s. Why do you think that is? Why can the USD system only fail in one way? You never addressed that besides going "nu uh"

    Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods

    Historically that would be the US itself since they hollowed out domestic industry since they could import everything with their exorbitant priviledge. What would stop them from printing even more to keep doing that if it's also the expedient answer? Which is also the core of my whole point here... they're cutting down the trees planted for them by prior generations and we're at the can now.

    Overall it seems to me that you're arguing swans can only be white as all swans are white, and there's no evidence of black swans existing. You don't make an alternative to the USD if the USD is working well... I think you have it backwards. An alternative will be made to get around the USD whicj will kill it. Not because of the alternative existing but because the USD failed in it's promises to those that use it. But thats not the only way it fails...

    Besides, any time a reserve currency has been replaced historically there usually isn't anything waiting to take up the role right away. It develops after the global trade currency devalues so much it stops being useful for international trade. The pound failed progressively over decades and was replaced with domestic forex temporarily until Bretton Woods solidified the USD as the replacement post WWII.

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  • [+] 1 point 7 hours ago*
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