For Europe, the stakes therefore reach well beyond Ukraine's sovereignty. Denying Russia victory, in Zysk's view, is essential both for Europe's long-term security and for checking the advance of authoritarian power.
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Europe has entered a more dangerous era of competition and confrontation. Unlike in 1989, the warning signs are visible. Speaking the Defence and Security Conference, Katarzyna Zysk [Professor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, IFS] argued that the challenge is no longer to recognize the shift taking place, but to convert that recognition into capability fast enough to shape what comes next.
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Alignment among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has moved fastest since 2022. It is not a formal alliance, Zysk stressed, but its cumulative effect is significant, and it converges in Ukraine: Iranian drone designs, North Korean troops and shells, and Chinese dual-use goods and sanctions evasion have all helped keep Moscow's war going.
For Europe, the stakes therefore reach well beyond Ukraine's sovereignty. Denying Russia victory, in Zysk's view, is essential both for Europe's long-term security and for checking the advance of authoritarian power.
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Zysk warned against assuming that Russia's difficulties in Ukraine reduce the danger facing Europe. Today, she said, Russia would struggle to sustain a major conventional war against a united NATO.
“But the risk lies not only in what Russia can do,” she said. “It lies also in what Putin believes NATO's resolve and Russia's strength are. He has misjudged both before.”
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“Putin is betting on exhaustion,” Zysk warned.
Finally, cohesion remains essential as the other three depend on it. Growing Nordic-Baltic cooperation, from integrated defence planning, military mobility, and closer industrial partnerships demonstrate real progress., Yet threat perceptions still differ across the Alliance, and NATO and Europe still lack a comprehensive Russia strategy, one that sets the terms of competition instead of reacting to Moscow's.
“Cohesion must be maintained, not assumed.”
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Returning to her analogy to 1989, Zysk argued that Europe today has something it lacked then: advance warning. The challenge is no longer to recognize the change, but to respond to it quickly enough.
“Our geography leaves us very little time for delay,” she said.
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