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How Popular Does Biden Need to Be to Beat Trump? Not Very. (nymag.com)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/politics@lemmy.world
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Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.

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[–] 131 points 2 years ago (66 children)

Don't take it for granted. Hilary lost because of this. Get out and vote.

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  • [–] 58 points 2 years ago (28 children)

    Hillary lost because she couldn't read the writing on the wall and told everyone she deserved to win because it was her time. She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump. The GOP spent 30 years demonizing her and she played right into their hands. Biden should have been the candidate then but that is hindsight.

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  • [–] 56 points 2 years ago (11 children)

    And even with all of her mistakes and her total lack of charisma, she still only lost because of an archaic system that lets the winner of the popular vote lose.

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  • [–] 38 points 2 years ago*

    And even with all of her mistakes and her total lack of charisma, she still only lost because of an archaic system that lets the winner of the popular vote lose.

    It's not like this system was sprung on her at the last second. She didn't take it into account. She pretty much ignored key swing states that wound up going to Trump.

    She was carried in a palanquin across the finish line in the primaries and didn't understand that she had to run the rest of the way.

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  • [–] 21 points 2 years ago (6 children)

    Bruh. She ignored a lot of close call battleground states and instead spent the end of the campaign doing "victory laps" in solid blue states like Cali because she was obsessed with beating Obama's popular vote total...

    You could argue her and her campaign should have known better, I just don't know where you'd find someone who disagreed to have that argument with.

    And that's not even getting into how with population growth, popular vote totals will be record breaking damn near every election.

    She was supposed to have the best campaign team in modern history, and either they were too stupid to know what the electoral college is, or they were unable to talk sense into Hillary and get her to actually win the election instead of her fucking self esteem tour to make her feel good about herself after losing to Obama.

    I'm just tired of people making excuses for her one second like it's her first day in politics, then trying to claim she's the greatest political mind of her generation the next.

    It can't be both.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 years ago

    "Shattered" is a book which goes into a bit more detail about what went wrong with the Clinton campaign. Also, this particular review represents a rare moment of lucidity from Matt Taibbi, back when he hadn't quite completed his devolution from whip-smart political correspondent into a Trump apologist for some fucking reason.

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  • [–] 25 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    Biden had just lost his son and didn't want the job. He later said he regretted that decision.

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  • [–] 24 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    It's not just that, also remember that Biden had made a minor career out of losing the Democratic Presidential Nomination before Obama asked him to be VP. Much of the reason for that is that he had the tendency to say dumb shit. Remember all those "Gaffes"?

    I don't think Biden could have ever become President before Trump, because we used to have higher standards for what was "Presidential". But once Trump became President, now all the dumb gaffes Biden makes are no longer a liability.

    I admit I have been more impressed with Biden then I thought I would. I think a big issue is he is a much better President than he is a candidate for President.

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  • [–] 22 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    She was the worst person on the planet to go against Trump.

    She absolutely was. And with the pied piper strategy, she basically said who she thought the worst candidate was in the opposition's field, then lost to him.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 years ago* (2 children)

    Moderates are really really motivated to only be just slightly better than Republicans.

    They want to be as corporation/billionaire friendly as possible, so they get as many donations as possible.

    It's why Hillary spent money, time, and effort boosting trump and Ben Carson in 2016. There wasn't much difference between her and Jeb Bush, so she didn't think she had a chance at beating him.

    The obvious risk was Hillary was/is a horrible candidate and might not have even been able to win against them, which she wasn't.

    It's like if the pitcher in a MLB game bet for his team to win, but by less than the spread. He still wants to win, but he keeps throwing softballs over the plate if he starts to win too much.

    But that's just a game, this is literally playing with people's lives.

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    [+] 84 points 2 years ago (10 children)
    [removed by mod]
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  • [–] 21 points 2 years ago (3 children)

    For that matter - vote out of spite for the rest of your life. I'll see you there.

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    [–] 43 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (6 children)

    I don't have to like Joe or his policies to know that voting for him is the better choice. It sucks to have vote for the lesser evil, but right now the gap between the lesser and greater evils is so large that it makes the decision simple.

    Joe will be a lame duck in 28' ineligible to run in 28'which will hopefully give us a chance to force the issue on not wantting to vote for the lesser evil then. However right now the greater evil is the issue, if we want to have a system to reform in 28' the choice on who to vote for now isn't a choice at all.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 years ago*

    I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when my best choice is to vote for someone who I know will not adequately address the multitude of extremely time sensitive issues facing our planet and country.

    Like yeah, Trump will be worse, and the system is such that you literally have to vote blue if you want to mitigate the damage. But climate change isn't waiting for us to "fix the system", Americans dying of inadequate health care don't have time to wait, the rich aren't going to stop widening the wealth gap just because. And for all of this, my vote goes to an administration that will only employ soft tactics to stop genocide...

    But hey, at least it could be worse right...

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    [+] 22 points 2 years ago* (4 children)
    [deleted]
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    [–] 18 points 2 years ago (25 children)

    Are people this dumb? Would they really consider Trump for another presidency, let alone another insane Republican candidate?

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    [–] 17 points 2 years ago* (6 children)

    If Trump is still the nominee, he will likely have been convicted in at least one of those 4 criminal cases, but still holds sway in the party to win anyway and will double-dog-dare Georgia to throw him in jail. In that case, I don't think enough people would willingly vote for a felon (even a Republican one) to give him a chance.

    This leaves Biden a single thing he absolutely needs to win the election: a pulse. I think the only person keeping America from becoming a fascist dictatorship is not Biden, it's his cardiologist. That doctor needs to keep Biden's heart ticking until Jan 21 2025.

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    [–] 11 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    I think the most important metric for Biden and the Democrats in the upcoming us election is a blood pulse.

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    [–] 10 points 2 years ago (27 children)

    Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy? If he hasn't keeled over with hamberders and buckets of KFC, he still has 91 felonies hanging over his head. He likely will be imprisoned, or disqualified by then.

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    [–] 7 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    I keep seeing messaging that essentially amounts to "Biden doesn't have to try, everything is great actually, and, besides, Trump is unelectable". Clearly the democrats learned nothing from 2016. This is too big to fuck up, don't phone it in.

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