The word "value" here is really subjective.
I considered buying it when the IPO was but didn't.
Now I'm looking at the comments here and I'm thinking that perhaps now is the time. Lemmy is usually the number one investment source. Just do the exact opposite what people are saying here and you'll be rich.
80% of the time, they're wrong every time.
its about to be flooded with insider shares.my guess prices will go down to 30$
Prime wallstreetbets material
Indeed lol, I should have shorted Spacex
And they're gonna sprinkle this into our index funds, yay!!
Is musk the first person to lose 1 trillion dollars? Quite the honor.
We ain't seen nothing yet. In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past. There will also be a wave of resignations from people who cash out and if that takes key people then investors back off even further. My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out. He has borrowed billions from people you wouldn't want to owe $1 and been delaying and juggling for a few years with tacking together this SpaceX nonsense amalgamation.
In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past.
When you consider the kind of life changing amounts of money even a few thousand shares sell for at current rates, they'd be crazy not to.
My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out
It's fallen maybe 12% since the IPO. You're talking about shares that were trading for a few bucks during the original debt offerings. Marc Andressen has something like a 6000% ROI on his holdings even at current prices.
If this company dropped by 50%, it would still be worth in the $800B range. There's no world in which current shareholders don't make fuckoff amounts of profit. The only question is whether we're talking nine figures or ten.
50% might prove optimistic. The rules that were bent for SpaceX exist for reasons. The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild. You are right, employees would be crazy not to sell at current rates. SpaceX employees are probably smart and/or educated enough to read the white papers on all these science fantasy projects and know they are pure fantasy. Cool stuff to fire up investment bros, but not the kind of thing they want to be tasked with trying to make reality. Point being, the floor for what an employee would not sale is going to be really low. True believers might hold, but anyone who smells the BS or just likes money will gleefully sell at 50% of current.
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions. Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits, let alone completely dominate supposedly multi-trillion dollar markets.
SpaceX employees are probably not happy about being used as a dumping ground for an AI black hole company. I expect many are counting the days until they can leave.
The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild.
So, from 1% of market cap to 2%?
Spread over shareholders who still hold north of 90% of the company?
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions.
China (and India and Brazil, among others) are all making huge investments in aerospace. The EU is certainly making a lot of noise, but because everything is privatized to fuck, what you're left with is guess like Richard Branson paddin wallets while programs like the FCAS flounder.
Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits
Starlink is still the modern word in satellite communication. That's worth a few hundred billion on it's face.
Will this advantage last? Idk. Probably not, but maybe.
At a minimum, if you want to be friendly with America, you'll need to buy from Musk.
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario (compare to other comm companies), can make money and SpaceX still not make any profits because of the the xAI money pit. Also, no, the advantage will not last. The last 30 years of satellite communications have been one seemingly promising idea after another that fizzled out or was made obsolete. No reason to think that trend will change now, especially not when the Starlink model is extremely resource intensive.
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario
The existing network plus whatever Elon Musk can launch in the next twenty years, assuming an absence of competition could be a trillion dollar company. When you've got a monopoly on military satellite technology in a market full of warring super states, that's a lot of economic leverage.
I'm deeply skeptical that he'll have that edge for long. But I can at least interesting someone who thinks it's worth a gamble.
Who is going to pay the money for there to be a reasonable return on that value? I don't have Starlink, I have no need for it, since there's a cable coming into where I live. Sure there's people that live in remote places that it's useful for. But that's not a lot of people.
There are military applications, but Musk is a flake not military wants to be dependent on him. Every country in the world is spending a lot of money to end their dependence on the US defense industrial complex, so there will be alternatives for military purposes.
Maybe it can work in vehicles? But if the price is too high people will just use 5G or just go without access for a while.
Starlink is just a product to fill in some edge cases. It will probably make a steady profit, but there will be competition from Europe and China before too long.
That's because it was severely over valued for a company that produces no product and makes no profit.
To be fair it was a solid pump and dump.
You mean creating a worldwide communication system that has to be completely relaunched every half decade that is the exact opposite of profitable isn't sustainable!?
Actually the Starlink division itself is profitable.
The unprofitable part is Twitter and xAI which got merged in right before the IPO.
SpaceX was actually on the path to being quite profitable, but then Musk tried to hide his two biggest money sinks inside it.
Profitable like Tesla? That is not actually profitable without a big chunk (like a third) of their money from government subsidies.
https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/117956/documents/HMKP-119-JU00-20250226-SD003.pdf
It appears SpaceX may not be as highly leveraged with the government with only 20% of its total revenue from government contracts.
It is interesting to look this up but ultimately what I mean is long term profitability considering they will have to continuously replace their satellites every 5-10 years.
The combining of his companies is a whole other level of fuckery that regulators should have smacked down instantly, but you know reality.
I'd be celebrating this more if it wasn't the retail investors getting screwed
What? A company that is making -5 billion net income lost 1 trillion in market value?!
He's such a loser not even his stock wants to hang around with him
Sadly Here, hé is not a loser. Things happened exactly the way he wanted to. He won big, his idiot fans lost bigger
I wont dispute that he certainly benefited from being able to buy entire countries and pay off any regulatory agency he didnt go at with an axe, but I think we all lost out as a result, not just his fanboys
he can drop still further
Its everything I hoped for.
This is the sort of news that achieve nothing and only give this guy visibility
Sell side stock news is usually made to help retail investors lose money. They will pile on to this thing for a few more weeks then reverse it back up to 3 trillion. Rinse wash repeat. And you have infinite money generator 2.0
So I have a question, for the people that want these stocks taxed at market value. What happens in this situation? Would the company and Elon get a refund from the government?
I would say that they should just get taxed at what ever the price is on December 31 or January 01.
If you lose money you can claim it as a loss just as you would when you sell for a loss, up to a certain limit.
Would the company and Elon get a refund from the government?
These shares were issued at the rate of dollars. Nobody selling their shares at IPO lost money.
After that, for the poor fools at EchoStar who took a very late position just before IPO at $212/share? They've always been entitled to write off shares at a loss.
You don't get a refund per say, but you do get tax loss carryover. So, if you lost $1M last year and you made $1M this year, you can tell the IRS that it's a push and you earned nothing.
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
