cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/44699253

This is clearly a sign that the product failed to draw in enough customers and its viability was overhyped.

Hopefully, it is the start of the AI bubble bursting.

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[–] 267 points 5 months ago (10 children)

OpenAI said it will discontinue Sora, the generative-AI video creation platform it launched in late 2024, without providing a reason for the decision.

That is the strongest indication this is the beginning of the end for the AI bubble. Sora burned a ton of processing power, with no clear value proposition, just to keep the hype cycle going a little longer. Shutting down without explanation leaves the most likely one: they are out of helium to pump into the balloon. And if that balloon isn't inflating, it's deflating.

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  • [–] 48 points 5 months ago

    It was a weak attempt to keep relevance when faced against Gemini and Claude. But it's completely unnecessary now that OpenAI has contracted with the government. They get all that sweet tax payer money and get to repurpose a ton of GPUs making stupid videos to supporting that new gov contract.

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  • [–] 13 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    It's not and probably the opposite.

    When Sora launched it was way ahead. Seedance 2's release was notably better than any of the other video gen models, Sora included.

    The market is getting commoditized because there's no moat and OpenAI hasn't led on pretty much any release for a while now other than Sora, which they're probably falling behind on now.

    This is the opposite of a burst from a tech standpoint, even if OpenAI as a company starts to pop.

    TL;DR: This is likely happening because the tech accelerated across the industry in ways OpenAI can't catch back up to, not because it's lagging.

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  • [–] 13 points 5 months ago

    Upvoted for a different perspective, but I suspect it ends in the same place.

    OpenAI is kept solvent by investor capital, and capital is kept flowing by the perception of OpenAI being the market leader. Seedance being a better model, enough to cause OpenAI to exit the market, still ruptures the perception of value. In a market with no clear profitability path, that's ground falling away.

    It also can't be simply commoditized because generations (I'm sure even Seedance) are expensive and still not good enough for production use, even if 50% of their consumer base might boycott if a major studio even did use it in production. Commoditization can't occur when there's still no economically self-sustaining, market-acceptable "good enough" product. Without that, even if the leader changes, it's a race between lemmings (sorry) off the cliff.

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    [–] 140 points 5 months ago (14 children)

    Chime in if you disagreee, but there's really only 2 reasons a company like OpenAI shuts down a core service like Sora:

    • The service is hemorrhaging money to the point of financial unsustainability.
    • The service is not popular enough to drive investor hype as a "loss leader"

    We already know that OpenAI is losing money on their generative "AI" products across the board, to the tune of billions of dollars per year, and the economic woes that come from rising hardware prices, oil and gas shortages, and another pointless war in the middle east only make the situation worse for them money-wise.

    And so that really just leaves me to conclude that Sora has not maintained the level of popularity and growth needed to impress investors as Q1 comes to a close. Whether it's users, subscriptions, or time, they must have looked at the numbers and really didn't like what they saw.

    Hopefully this is the beginning of the end of the ridiculous "AI" bubble, and the start of a new tech sector correction.

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  • [–] 55 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    There's a third option this time.

    It uses a lot of resources they can use immediately for the military contract that will now inevitably form the backbone of the company and effectively will mean they have won the AI war. Anthropic fumbled by not doing what the military wanted immediately, and showing a minimal backbone publicly.

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  • [–] 20 points 5 months ago

    I listened to a Vox’s Today Explained that tackled this whole contract. What was said on there was that Anthropic had in some very minor stipulations about AI and war, but were rejected. OpenAI came in with their offer and then after getting it, the contract they signed had the wording that Anthropic was asking for.

    It basically came down to, Altman was the favorite of the Trump administration and got the contract because of behind the scenes bullshit and because Dario was/is super critical of Trump when it comes to AI safety.

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    [–] 124 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    As someone who named their daughter Sora in 2021, this is the best news I've gotten this year.

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  • [–] 83 points 5 months ago (6 children)

    Why stop there? Just shut the whole company down.

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  • [–] 42 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    Best I can do is shutting the whole planet down.

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    [–] 69 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    Oooooohhhh is it starting? I hope it’s starting 🤩

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  • [–] 51 points 5 months ago

    Best news I've heard all day! POP THE SLOP

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  • [–] 39 points 5 months ago

    GOOD. Bubble grew a bigger hole letting the air out. Disney removed their $1B investment so let's hope more do too in the near future to keep ripping that hole wider, yes.

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  • [–] 32 points 5 months ago

    But muh slop

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  • [–] 31 points 5 months ago

    you mean giving away billions of dollars of computer with no monetisation strategy was bad? man who would have thought. not sam, apparently. if only there were like, some way to have realised that the goal of business is to earn money

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  • [–] 28 points 5 months ago

    In the dotcom era, the push was to create lots of free services. Once you had enough users, you wanted to see how many would be willing to pay for it. There was a formula that justified getting more investment (it varied by domain). Back then, almost nobody other than Amazon survived the hard shaking of the tree.

    We may be coming up to the point where customer acquisition through free service ends. Whatsever is left standing will move to the next round.

    Everybody else gets dropped on the floor.

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  • [–] 27 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Let me get this straight: Disney was supposed to give Openai license for their characters, and on top of that invest billion dollars in the Openai? The money literally went the wrong way

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  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago

    Not really. Disney management has drunken the same Koolaid as any other management right now: they believe they can fire large parts of their staff and replace them with "AI", allowing them to achieve similar or even greater productivity at a fraction of the cost (i.e. whatever fee "open"AI charges). To achieve that, they need to give Sora access to their characters (so it can be trained to produce Disney movies) and invest in the company (as a down payment; money that would be recuperated by eliminating workers from the equation).

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  • [–] 24 points 5 months ago
    [–] 23 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    All people ever did with sora was make doorbell cam footage of dogs watergunning old ladies and gorillas getting sucked into tornados. AI image and video generation is just a tool to make a funny joke, it's incapable of doing anything serious in its current state, and with the amount of processing power it needs just to be a digital circus clown it's unlikely to become anything more.

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  • [–] 11 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    AI image generation is amazing for replacing stock photos, and not bad at replacing clipart and porn images.

    AI video generation is ok at replacing very simple videos without continuity or physics, but their only real applications are for spreading misinformation or mindless scrolling, there's just no real way to get anyone to pay for them.

    That's aside from the fact that sora could've been great for generating generic stock footage/b-roll, but the way they implemented it was to generate a script, then audio, then video, which meant that it really struggled to generate anything without a focal point, ie what it would actually be useful for.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    So youtube will be worth watching again right?

    Right?

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  • [–] 19 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    It still is for the creators there. Instead of browsing the algorithm I start on the subscriptions page, to only see uploads from people I actually want to.

    There's sometimes complaints about "I thought you were dead" when the channel has been uploading regularly the entire time. People just never got recommended the videos despite hitting all the buttons.

    For example, did you know both Physics Girl and Tom Scott have returned this month - hopefully a sign that the world can still heal.


    Some unsolicited add-on recommendations -

    Ublock origin - beyond the addblocking, I use the picker tool to filter all the extra sections like "news", "trending" "you might like" etc.

    Unhook - toggles to disable a bunch of features like comments, home screen, end screen etc.

    Enhancer for Youtube - Themeing and a bunch of extra settings like setting defaults for each video. speed, volume, resolution, fill screen (which is different than full screen), PIP while you scroll comments. (The author just did a rework, so it can be a little bugged sometimes - reinstalling it fixed it for me last time it went wonky.

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    [–] 21 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    So many people seem to have no idea what they're talking about. This isn't ending AI video creation, it just cost them a lot of money to offer it. You can generate a video on your own computer already. AI video isn't going away because one company isn't letting people do it on their servers for free any more.

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  • [–] 17 points 5 months ago (9 children)
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    [–] 15 points 5 months ago

    Don't worry, I'm sure we'll have other tools for quickly and cheaply creating falsified videos and the like. Faith in the veracity of video evidence probably won't be coming back.

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  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    I'd bet money that the Disney deal falling through was because OpenAI couldn't guarantee that Sora couldn't be used to generate porn of their characters, since attackers will almost certainly always find new prompt injections.

    Surprise surprise, it's a giant fucking black box that you can never have complete control over.

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    [–] 13 points 5 months ago*

    my guess is that ai video is not going away, and that sora was largely a marketing project which cost a lot of money

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  • [–] 12 points 5 months ago

    I think one of the reasons why consumer facing AI content is failing so bad is because we have had good video content for decades so it’s super obvious when a video is just off.

    I think this relates to the main reason why AI is failing (or at least not popular with consumers). It automatically just means the product has less quality than you’ve been used to for your entire life. It hasn’t really provided anything new to consumers.

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  • [–] 11 points 5 months ago

    Bye Felicia

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  • [–] 10 points 5 months ago

    Openai is the canary

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  • [–] 10 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Could this mean less wholly AI generated videos on YouTube? Please be so.

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    [–] 8 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    It was used almost exclusively for slop and slop-based ads or videos that shouldn't be slop. I was on there yesterday and some account had 2 videos of a woman in front of a plain wall talking for 15 seconds about tax implications for investments. A real human could have filed it with an iphone in 3 minutes.

    But now that's Google and Grok's problems, I guess.

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    [–] 6 points 5 months ago
    [–] 6 points 5 months ago

    Sweet now do the whole company

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