Indeed, three years of funnelling weapons to Ukraine have critically depleted stockpiles, while rising domestic unrest demands resources at home. Recent failures against Yemen expose the limitations of US military power, and confronting Iran now seems like a tall order. Iran also enjoys full backing from Russia and China, solidified by the new China-Iran rail link that guarantees sustained logistical support.

There is also a logistics trap here similar to the one the US encountered in Ukraine lacking the industrial capacity to match Russian or Chinese weapons production and having to project power across an ocean. Meanwhile, Iran is a technologically advanced regional power with some capabilities rivalling the US will be the toughest adversary the US tried to take on directly. The era of uncontested US military dominance is over.