this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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No single experiment is ever going to be definitive. More rigor makes an experiment more reliable as a data point, but informal testing is still useful. It can be a “gut check”, or a launchpad for further, more formal, experimentation. Fuck around and find out is a tried and true staple of science.
Ironically the Manhattan Project’s Trinity test is a great example of this kind of testing. There was extreme uncertainty going into the test. There was no way to create a small-scale version of the experiment, no control to compare against. They didn’t know if the bomb would fizzle or ignite the atmosphere. They set it off to see what would happen, and then tweaked their future experiments and designs based on their observations.
At no point during the Manhattan Project was any plutonium haphazardly experimented on with poorly designed experiments and "gut checks".
Ever heard of the Demon Core?
Holy fucking hell.
The absolute madmen.
Scientists are human and fallible.
"Professional Science" is just as vulnerable to "eh, I know what I'm doing", bias, politics, funding, feuds, ignoring details-that-dont-fit and shortcuts, as the rest of the human experience.
That's why we see "breakthrough discoveries" falling apart to scrutiny on a regular basis and new facts/theories are only gradually accepted into the "body of accepted knowledge" after lots of peer reviewing, reproduction, general chewing-it-over and when the old "that can't be true" generation has retired/died.
On the other hand, quick and dirty gut-check experiments and goofing around with a new idea are a valuable way to easily check for falsification and narrow down what actual, rigorous tests might have to look like. They're also a major source of lab accidents.
In the context of the Manhattan Project, the demon core is a perfect example of this.