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How much of an impact is the protest really having on Reddit?
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Yep, this is the most realistic take. They did give lemmy/kbin a boost that will be home to a bunch of users, but it's not winner take all. Both will now exist. People won't leave reddit until they are personally affected. Most people didn't care about 3rd party apps, and once the blackout is over, regular users won't care unless reddit attacks them directly.