May be naive and optimistic of me, but given that Threads has such a narrow focus, that being short text posts or "microblogging", I'd say it already greatly pales in comparison to the wider array of federated web apps.
Like, there's Pixelfed (Insta-like), Lemmy & Kbin (Reddit-likes), PeerTube (YouTube-like), Owncast (Twitch/Kick-like), Friendica/Hubzilla/Diaspora (Facebook-like?), Funkwhale (Spotify/SoundCloud-like?), Bookwyrm (Goodreads-like), WriteFreely (Medium-like), and uh...The list just goes on and on. There's so much more than just microblogging built on ActivityPub, and even totally different protocols that enable federation (Diaspora & Hubzilla aren't built strictly with ActivityPub, for instance, though certain elements may interface using it).
Tbh I see Threads as more likely to run a rather strict allow list of which sites they federate with, rather than ever openly federating, simply as a means to control the user experience and limit their liability for what their users may be exposed to (I know, that probably sound silly given their track record of exposing folks to awful shit, but they can't let women's nipples be seen!).