I think just #2 is reasonable because I'm sure there are talks going on behinds the scenes that probably show a completely different picture, we can look at the Ukraine war and how the media shows the bloodthirsty propaganda of the counter offensive meanwhile all the actual analysts were pointing out the US was not realy willing to commit much beyond what they already gave and they demand results before re-investing again. Meanwhile the media is all about Slava Ukraine with the US just happily supporting it. Reality was not so simple.

In this case I think with regards to #1 and #3 again I point to the Ukraine war and how the NATO axis realy believes their actual superiority shit, they actualy believe they'll just march and the enemy will just run away in fear, that their toys are invincible etc.

Maybe this is a hot take but I actualy really doubt the IDF is as fearful as the narrative pushed here often. If they share the same military doctrine as NATO then why would they not be as corrupt and incompetent?

I think there is more than enough reason to believe the only reason holding them back is political. Militarily speaking I don't think they have any doubts of their capability to achieve "victory" however that is defined.