I mean--that's kind of already happened, hasn't it? The whole business with beehaw defederating is really just the first shots of the Instance Wars, and that's not even mentioning the pejorative view a lot of folks have for some instances (ahem, furries). I was accused of being a right-winger for even broaching the subject that beehaw defederating might not have been for entirely altruistic reasons.
I think we can expect to see a lot more of this in the future, especially once corporate players throw in their hats and realize they can weaponize human sociology as part of their EEE strategy. Once you have most of the users and most of the communities, just wall off (defederate) anybody you see as a threat to hegemony. Sure, people can migrate, but there's a mental cost associated with that that many aren't willing to pay.
Begun, the Instance Wars have. Beans.