That's a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.

Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can't be said of the special elections preceding Kerry's loss. And it's important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don't answer calls from unknown numbers.

Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.

I'm by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I'm not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.