The point isn't to overtake reddit, it is to create a vibrant place with actual human interaction, if we do that we win no matter how many people are here since every time someone goes to search something they are going to increasingly end up searching through fediverse threads the way people used to use reddit for information (which is something I miss dearly about the old open internet and it motivates me to build it here in a new way).
The Fediverse isn't growing amazingly fast or anything but the userbase is engaged and values this place, we will only continue to grow in the medium and longterm. When the next big wave of users come is I don't know but also in some ways I don't care, this place is already vibrant for me and I know others will see that more and more as time goes on.