spoilerUnder pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.

Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.

To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.

The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.

And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.

We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.

Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.

They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.

One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.

6:47 PM · Nov 1, 2026 · 43.5M Views

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[–] [S] 42 points 1 day ago (4 children)

The MOAB use is a big reason why I think he'd do it. Same with things like the piracy and Caribbean sea murders. Trump is stuck in that 2001-2003 Bush mindset where spectacle wins war. It doesn't matter if it achieves nothing. If it harms the US, 𝒿𝓊𝓈𝓉 𝓁𝒾𝑒 𝒶𝒷𝑜𝓊𝓉 𝒾𝓉. I doubt the military leadership would actually resist and it probably means nothing to any pilot who'd otherwise be bombing a school, so there's no institutional barrier to it and liberals are too drunk on jingoism to even consider Nuremburg trials against precious baby soldiers in the aftermath.

To him it's the same kind of calculus as the Hiroshima bombing but on a faulty premise that Iran is materially 1945 Japan. He's destroyed 90% of their air force and navy every week for the past 9 months. Their economy is completely destroyed and their soldiers are down to rice rations in caves. Tokyo is in ruins along with any other surface evidence of a functioning country. Surely showing them we have two bombs will make them surrender because we might have three.

But realistically Iran is like if 1942 Japan had anime weapons and the entire Pacific Ocean was within range of their small arms. If they duct tape an xray machine to a $20k shahed drone, that's a radiological weapon that can hit any gulf state after the US spends $10m failing to shoot it down. Shooting it down only irradiates a different gulf state. Their launch systems potentially include every small cargo truck in the region, every patch of sand in a gigantic desert, and every mountain in a country that's half mountains. Hitting one missile city thinking it will be a bloodless Hiroshima is going to backfire so hard so fast.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 day ago (3 children)

    Wait, would an x-ray machine on a Shahed actually work?

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  • [–] [S] 24 points 1 day ago* (2 children)

    They'd just need the little container inside with the isotopes. Shaheds already routinely attack targets around the region including military bases. That's a radiological weapon though, not a nuclear weapon. You're only irradiating the area with a conventional explosion and not causing a nuclear reaction.

    edit: I do however want them to use the full xray machine. That's going to be a great emoji like the-boys-are-back-in-town

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  • [–] 12 points 1 day ago

    X-ray machines do not use radioactive isotopes to produce x-rays. You can use radioactive isotopes for imaging like in nuclear medicine but that's not x-rays. X-rays are produced using a high voltage (kilovolts) electron beam, in a vacuum tube, striking a (usually) tungsten anode.
    I guess you could maybe attach one to a drone if it could carry enough weight. The mobile x-ray machines I work with are about 300kg but there are smaller hand portable ones. The main issue is that this would be a massive waste of time because the only damage would be a slight increase in the lifetime risk of cancer...unless you used the drone plus 300kg x-ray machine as a kinetic projectile I guess. Source: I am a radiographer.

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