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Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 18th October 2026 (awful.systems)
submitted 22 hours ago by to c/techtakes@awful.systems
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The spooks grow ever closer, and the abyss grows ever sandier.

Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)

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[–] 8 points 13 hours ago (2 children)

furthering my previous guessing that there's likely only appetite for 2, maybe 3, of these ridiculous IPOs, a number of analyst notes have started kicking around and they're getting progressively more realistic in their outlook. saw this one this morning

Red Flag #3: The IPO is Exit Liquidity, Not Growth Capital

To justify a $2 trillion valuation, our model shows that Anthropic would have to:
 • immediately improve NOPAT margin to 10% and sustain it for the next 10 years (compared to -175% reported operating margin in 2025),
 • grow revenue by 1000% in 2026 and 100% in 2027, and
 • grow revenue 56% compounded annually from 2028-2035.

sounds ambitious. sure hope they don't have any material risks and systematic exposures that make that harder!

In this scenario, Anthropic’s
1. revenue would reach $3.6 trillion (compared to $4.6 billion in 2025), which is 1.4x the combined TTM
revenue of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL).
2. NOPAT would reach $358 billion in 2035, compared to the company’s -$8 billion reported operating loss in 2025. For reference, $358 billion is 2.0x NVIDIA’s $184 billion and 2.6x Apple’s $136 billion in TTM NOPAT.

good thing the cost of inference is going down! sure, qwen3.8-27b is already stale and everyone needs to throw another couple hundred million at another training update, but the cost of inference! /s

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