I think the re-election of the Trump admin after an interregnum of "reasonable liberal governance" dealt a terminal blow to the idea that American electoralism fundamentally moderates the USA's behavior. And because Trump is throwing shit everywhere, other countries can't help but gain some first-hand experience of the downsides of that situation, and will act accordingly.

Also, the USA's internal cultural landscape is fracturing, and there is no-longer an implicit coordinate between the USA's cultural exports, and the goals of the USA's political leadership. And so, even if the USA remains a cultural export juggernaut (I think it will), that aspect of it's soft power will no longer be such a direct tool for it's leadership. And so I expect that the USA will become a lot more hard-edged in the way it interacts with the rest of the world, simply because the cultural influences will not subtly steer other country's decision making towards outcomes that the USA favors.