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Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victory (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 14 hours ago by to c/world@lemmy.world
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Progressive voters and supporters of incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva left reeling after far-right surge

Flávio Bolsonaro is in pole position to win Brazil’s presidential election, after a far-right tsunami propelled him to a shock first-round victory over the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leaving progressive voters reeling.

The 45-year-old rightwing candidate received 56.1m votes to Lula’s 53.8m – 47.03% to 45.16% – meaning the 80-year-old leftwinger has a mountain to climb if he is to bounce back in the second round on 25 October. Never, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, has the first-round runner-up managed to turn the game around and win the second ballot.

“Miracles are possible in politics. But I don’t see that happening,” the political scientist Miguel Lago said of Lula’s chances of snapping back. “I don’t see Flávio losing this election now.”

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[–] 2 points 12 hours ago* (2 children)

The majority of those 8% intend to vote for Lula on the second round

Source?

both Flavio and Lula are tied on the polls

the round-one polls had Lula leading Flávio by 3 points. the result was instead Flávio leading Lula by 2 points. That's a big miss.

WTF does "more right-wing" than alt-right

I'm not good at Brazillian politics either, but I'm going to research the entire makeup of the 8%:

Round-one presidential results, all percentages excluding Flávio and Lula

  1. Cury's (2.86%) is the only one I'm not sure of. On one hand his party's ideology is moderate "Labourism", on the other hand:

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer ​on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Lula's Workers' Party out of office. "I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for ​him in the next few minutes," she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

  1. Renan Santos (2.24%), Missão: National liberalism, technocapitalism, bukelism, "The Feindstrafrecht says that certain people, as enemies of the society (or the state), do not deserve the protections of the civil or penal law." At least they support sustainability and infrastructure. Santos alleged a "wave" of neurotypical individuals falsely claiming to be autistic to obtain benefits and neurotypivestigated an actress.
  2. Ronaldo Caiado (2.18%): For some reason "Social Democra-" means economic neoliberalism in Brazil apparently. Party ideology mostly known for pragmatism: "We are neither a right-wing party nor a left-wing nor a centrist party." (?) Caiado is a right-winger known for criticizing Lula and leading opposition to land reform, seems to have similar campaign on crime as Flávio Bolsonaro.
  3. Romeu Zema (0.27%) in 2023 implied South and Southwest Brazil separatism to the great horror of everyone and Bolsonaro. In 2020, he said "We need to have tools that curb what we might call a natural instinct of human beings" to promote a support program for domestic violence survivors. In May argued for child labor (under 16).
  4. Samara Martins (0.10%) is left socialist.
  5. Hertz Dias (0.04%), Fourth International.
  6. Clariano Barão (0.03%), Christian Democracy party, paternalistic conservatism. Like the German CDU so I'll concede this isn't more right-wing.
  7. Edmilson Costa (0.02%), communist.
  8. Wilson Grassi (0.01%), single issue anti-abortion "Woman's Party" known for failing to meet state quota of women candidates in 2017.
  9. Rui Costa Pimenta (0.01%), of dissident Trotskyists party that praised Taliban and al-Qaeda for triumph "over American imperialism", opposes "gender ideology".

Excluding Cury and Barão, I count 4.71% right-wing against just 0.16% Lula-ish, or against 0.19% if we include Barão in the latter count, or against 3.05% even if we include Cury in the latter (which I quite doubt we can). If we add these numbers to the first-round results of Flávlo vs. Lula, Flávlo'd have a 6-point, 6-point, or 4-point lead.

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  • [–] 2 points 11 hours ago (1 child)

    Source?

    Any recent poll. You can search them here:

    https://www.planopolitico.com.br/agregador/presidente/

    Also, every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated. On basically every poll.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 hours ago*

    every single polling institute said the prediction for Flavio was underestimated

    I can't find that in the polls you linked. They seem to accord with what I said: They showed a 3-point Lula lead until 28 September, and the final averages have a 1.6-point Lula lead, while Flávio Bolsonaro in fact won by 2 points.

    I think it's reasonable to assume the round 2 polls also underestimate Flávio to a similar degree, as American (the continents') polls have done with alt-right candidates time and time again. I do not trust you saying this means the 8% will majorly vote for Lula when the evidence above points otherwise, and the media doesn't either.

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