We can expect 2026 to have an overall ranking within the top ten most severe ozone holes of all time.

I know the main stream bang on about this being a success for cooperation by humanity (cough) and yet we have no idea of the long term consequences of what we've done.

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[–] 2 points 6 hours ago (8 children)

I always thought that the international effort to change compressor gas had a positive effect! We can't have anything good anymore.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 hours ago (3 children)

    It did. Only now somebody else is fucking up somewhere.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 hours ago (2 children)

    It's China. CFC-11 is being used illegally in manufacturing.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 hours ago (2 children)

    It had a huge positive effect. The levels are still better than they were. The hole is bigger, but the levels are better, it's just more spread out.

    We might have possibly already destroyed the ozone layer tho. And by "we" I mean specifically Elon Musk and his Starlink bullshit. Those satellites are designed to orbit very low to get low latency, but that means they can only stay up there for 3-6 years (on average around 4.5 years). They just launch thousands and thousands to keep up with the rate of depletion. The satellites are small, so they burn up in the upper atmosphere, so not a problem right? Wrong as it turns out. When they burn up they drop a huge amount of aluminium particles into the upper atmosphere where they drift around for a long time. As they slowly drop lower into the atmosphere the interact with the ozone layer depleting it quickly.

    It's pretty early to tell how bad the damage will be, but with the amount of satellites up there we might already be very fucked.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL109280

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  • [–] 3 points 4 hours ago

    Might be a good time for countries to start charging SpaceXAI (or however it's called these days) for their effect on the ozone layer.

    If e.g. the EU estimates that it'll have to spend fifty billion euros a year dealing with the effects of LEO satellite constellations in the ozone layer then they should bill those fifty billion euros to the operating companies with each paying a proportion relative to how many satellites they have in LEO.

    Likewise for every other country that has to deal with the effects of a diminished ozone layer. If that means SpaceX becomes deeply unprofitable then that's unfortunate for the investors.

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