I really feel like this is her election to lose and the material and political conditions, esp in a pillar of the Western metropole, point towards her winning decisively.

I do not disagree with this at all, especially given the fact that all the press will be in favour of her and opposed to Melenchon.

On top of that, I do really wonder if there will be electoral fraud and even if there has been electoral fraud in the past: 1.2% to 1.7% too little in the first round, in 2017 and 2022, respectively, after having all the momentum, I'm not about that. Especially given that even during the American primaries there was electoral fraud to stop Bernie Sanders (admitted by the head of the DNC at the time, Donna Brazil, in her book; and defended by the DNC in court because "a private organisation isn't expected to provide a fair election in the same way as a government, it choose how to operate").

I also know for a fact that in Belgium, small electoral fraud took place to take away one regional parliamentary seat from PTB and give it to PS. This is beyond doubt. Has it happened more? Who knows, the party doesn't have electoral observers in all voting stations.

Melenchon is much more radical than Bernie Sanders, and France is much more important than Belgium...