first of all, you should read the Gender Dysphoria Bible if you haven't already :)
to answer your question directly, i will say that i initially felt pretty similar when i first started considering the possibility of being trans. however, the more i tried experimenting with feminine clothing the more i realized "i like dressing like this, even if i don't remotely look like a girl", and the more research i did on the potential effects of HRT the more i realized "i want these changes, even if taking it doesn't end up making me look like a girl".
i can say that there definitely are trans folk out there who are perfectly happy to recognize the fact that they're trans and then go on with their lives without changing anything, for whatever reasons they may have (perhaps they don't experience any dysphoria and therefore see no reason to change anything, or are forced to suppress it by social pressure). you won't really see them represented much in actual trans spaces though, mainly because they aren't transitioning (by definition) and therefore often don't really have any reason to hang out in trans spaces.
a bunch of stuff which i think may be helpful for your consideration
there are a few things i think need to be addressed here:
If I could just magically physically be a woman right now, I would immediately, and probably never present male again.
agreed, this is pretty solid evidence that you're probably trans, at least to some degree. in fact, it likely even excludes some parts of the non-binary gender spectrum (any of the "enby who presents masc most or all of the time"-genders probably don't apply to you).
I have [male sex characteristics], and I don’t really mind either.
neither the fact that you currently have those traits nor the fact that you don't mind having them are necessarily indicators that you can't transition! i know plenty of transfem folk, including binary trans women, who actively like having a penis. dysphoria is not a requirement for being trans.
I’ll never pass
if transitioning is something which would make you happier, don't let "passing" (i.e. ticking off all the arbitrary boxes that random cis people on the street expect people of a particular gender to) get in the way of that.
also if you do decide to medically transition, you may well be surprised :)
i think your problem is that you're focusing entirely on transitioning medically rather than trying to figure out what would make you happiest. the point of transitioning is to maximize the euphoria from presenting and being perceived as a particular gender, and based on what you described it sure sounds like some form of transition might help you achieve that. the way i see it, there are a few relevant possibilities to consider:
- you would like to be (more) fem-presenting much or all of the time, and don't have any physical dysphoria about your body.
- you would like to be (more) fem-presenting much or all of the time, and do experience some kind of dysphoria, but are so good at ignoring and/or suppressing your own feelings wrt. your body/gender that you've become numb to it (just like me fr)
- you're some flavor of genderfluid/bigender/... , in which case the questions of "how do i want to present" and "how do i want my body to look" might not have a single consistent answer at any given time
- you're wrong about your hypothetical response to the "button test" (although frankly this is not very likely given what you described)
- something else entirely? i don't live in your head
in my opinion, the fact that you say you'd "probably never present male again" is a pretty good indicator that if nothing else, some kind of social transition may be good for you. i would suggest that, even if you think it won't look good, you at least try socially transitioning to see how it feels - try experimenting some more feminine clothes, a wig, makeup, some different names or pronouns. these things are all easily reversible and there's very little at stake. you mentioned that you're already tangentially in contact with some existing trans spaces, so i'd suggest maybe giving them a visit yourself - any trans community worth its salt will be nothing but supportive and understanding, even if you identify as "questioning cis dude", and it'll be both a good opportunity to hear some more experiences in-person as well as a safe space to experiment with your own presentation.