This feels like the kind of narrative that OP is asking about. Everything that you've said sounds kind of sane and plausible, but it's not really borne out by the reality.
I think a realistic case for that is that the AI tools that come out in the next few years will be good enough to do a fair amount of white-collar work
That's just not what I've seen. I'd love to be able to automate the work of my white-collar team, but everything that we have seen thus far just seems incapable of providing any significant improvement. Software providers in our industry have implemented some gen AI tools, and even the sales reps for those providers are very wary of them. They've been able to reliably automate some elements of jobs, but it's an incremental improvement over the previous automation and it didn't consume a significant amount of time anyway.
There's absolutely no evidence that gen AI will have a significant impact on my white-collar industry. In fact, the evidence presently available indicates that this generation of AI does not have the capability to impact our industry.
other types of AI are already enabling robotic automation of factories and in the near-ish future might make self-driving truck fleets practical.
This is really the same story. Factories have been being automated since the industrial revolution. Self driving tech has been a year away for the last 10 years.