sounds kind of sane and plausible, but it’s not really borne out by the reality.
I think a realistic case for that is that the AI tools that come out in the next few years will be good enough to do a fair amount of white-collar work
That’s just not what I’ve seen.
What I have seen is that AI tools make software development significantly easier, faster, cheaper - pick two, and as long as you aren't picking cheaper we're going to get better software coming out faster over the coming years.
Better software translates to easier, more automatic processes for a lot of white and blue collar work. It doesn't do everything, but it does a lot.