muusemuuse comments on EV prices are falling while the average new car tops $50K

[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 1 point 1 month ago (8 children)

It’ll be fine. EV batteries don’t just have the failure mode most people expect where it just stops working one day. They lose capaicy over time. Even then, they trends down to settling at 70-80%, not zero.

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[–] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 1 point 1 month ago (7 children)

That's not entirely true. There's still risk of sudden battery failure. Otherwise these guys wouldn't have a business. Fortunately: Those guys do have a business and many others exist. For a couple grand at most you can get many battery packs repaired to their former glory. On a car where the battery pack is easy to remove, it should be fairly cheap assuming they can get cells somewhere (like other dead battery packs). The one in the video was done for 1€ as a joke, but that may very well be the true material cost of repair for an early Tesla battery since their cells are roughly the same as in an e-cigarette, 18650.

It IS increasingly rare with newer EVs, but it's a failure mode where the dealer will tell you to fuck off and pay anywhere between 20 and 70 thousand unless in warranty and for some manufacturers (Mercedes) the warranty terms have been updated to say that if the battery is more expensive than the residual value of the car, warranty will only cover it up to the value of the car.

All lithium-ion cells die one day. Majority will live a long happy life, but lifetime is not predictable on an individual level, only on the level of hundreds or thousands of units. I used to refurb laptops. I have the most experience with Macbook batteries, which I find to be very high quality for a laptop battery. I've tested at least a thousand of those, maybe 2-3 thousand.

Apple says 1000 charge cycles is what one should last - if you manage to get over 1000 cycles within the warranty period and it drops under 80% capacity, bad luck, you're not getting a warranty replacement. If it's under 1000 cycles and within the warranty period, it's covered. I've seen one or two that had above 80% capacity on as many as 2800 charge cycles. Many that were over 1000 but still good, many that had dropped barely under 80% in 200, 500 or maybe 1500 cycles... But I've also seen a couple that were in double digit cycle count and had <=30% capacity left. Usually those were also swollen.

It's just impossible to predict longevity on a single battery pack with proper accuracy.

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[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 1 point 1 month ago* (6 children)

EVs scale battery risks down not up. An iPhone battery will age but remember, the EV has a higher capacity, so the pull is lower. Also, by the time it hits a used car lot, the degradation on the battery is pretty much leveled off. It’s exponential decay, not linear. You MIGHT have to swap a cell. That’s it. That’s much cheaper than a timing issue or a transmission eating a grenade.

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[–] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 1 point 1 month ago (5 children)

Ha! But I can replace a timing chain or repair a modern automatic transmission, for not much money. The cell replacement would in fact cost me much more money because I am NOT touching those voltages.

But also, that's exactly why I'm saying it's best to get an EV that's actually used, not one that's near-new. The depreciation hits hard for about 4-5 years, not one or two and by the time the model's been out for multiple years, there are donors to get cells from. They're much cheaper than new at 1-2 years, but they're DIRT cheap 5 more years after that.

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[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 1 point 1 month ago* (4 children)

By the time the average driver understands they need a timing chain replacement, their interference engine has already digested their entire top end.

Don’t fear voltage. Because it’s the amperage that turns you into a donor.

You want an EV that came off its first owner. Depreciation was absorbed by the first owner, replacement parts are pentiful, the battery has done all the evil is is statistically likely to.

Honestly, short of buying Musk’s dumpster Delorean there’s no bad options at that point.

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[–] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 1 point 1 month ago (3 children)

By the time the average driver understands they need a timing chain replacement, their interference engine has already digested their entire top end.

Ah yeah, I'm not very average as a car owner anyway. I hear a noise, I'm investigating. So far my current car, notorious for timing chain (tensioner) failure, has made chain noise on cold startup exactly twice, both times when oil level was low and that leak's been fixed luckily. Though for that engine it's been said that a cold startup chain rattle for a few seconds is OK, warm startup chain rattle is not. But with oil level in spec, mine doesn't even do it cold.

Don’t fear voltage. Because it’s the amperage that turns you into a donor.

I = U/R, there are no amps without volts. Average car I'm looking at has 300-400 kW peak power, so the battery pack is capable of outputting at least that. And with P=U*I at say 400 volts, 400 kW means the battery pack needs to be capable of putting out 1000 amps. If we were talking about a 400 volt source that quickly drops down under load, we could talk about "amps kill", but with a high power battery pack, the amps aren't exactly limited by anything other than the voltage and your body's resistance.

You want an EV that came off its first owner. Depreciation was absorbed by the first owner, replacement parts are pentiful, the battery has done all the evil is is statistically likely to.

Nah, I want one that came off its second or third owner. I see too many 1-3 year old ones on sale from their first owner. Too new, not depreciated enough.

Honestly, short of buying Musk’s dumpster Delorean there’s no bad options at that point.

Well, tons of them actually. Many of the cheaper ones don't have heat pumps - nonnegotiable for me in an EV due to the shitty climate I live in and the fact that I'd like to enjoy a decent amount of range even if I can't preheat it. Then there's ones that otherwise sound good on paper, but the entire infotainment system is two touchscreens. I want physical controls. I'm very demanding of my cars in certain respects and it's actually easier to meet most of my criteria in an older car than a newer one, which is my biggest frustration with EVs. Give me a 2005-2012 Mercedes S-Class but as an EV and I'll be happy until the end times. Or even better, a post-facelift L322 Range Rover as an EV. That should be a treat if there's no Ford engine to go wrong lol

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[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 1 point 4 weeks ago (2 children)

My old leaf had a heat pump and while it was nice, the newer EVs have such dense batteries they don’t really need that anymore. My bolt does fine in the Ohio winters. I do hate the Chevy brakes and suspension but otherwise it’s great.

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[–] boonhet@sopuli.xyz 1 point 3 weeks ago (1 child)

Hmm we do have slightly colder winters here, but not catastrophically colder.

I do remember earlier EVs losing about ~50% of their range in the winter here though. Not sure how it is with more modern ones without heatpumps.

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[–] muusemuuse@sh.itjust.works 1 point 3 weeks ago

It’s not the heats causing that. Batteries lose range when cold. Modern batteries have climate control and simply using them also heats them up. Winter driving reduces range on gas cars too.

The range in winter is lower but not as severely as it used to be. My eatimated range year round fluctuated between 250 and 180 miles and that’s fine.

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