• https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fama_and_French_three-factor_model
• https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fama_and_French_five-factor_model

It would be interesting to see if it's kind of the same fund managers beating the market all the time, or it is random 10%? Unfortunately since everyone involved is competing for profit there's no incentive to let the rest of the world know what they've found.

The flip side of those numbers is that 90% of fund managers won't beat the market. If your fund manager is just buying stacks of VOO then why are you paying them to do what you can do yourself. If they're buying a bunch of complicated stuff to match VOO but charge you more money for it, then you're behind people who just bought VOO for a much smaller fee. If they're not beating VOO then how do they stay in business (hint: marketing)?

One interesting aspect of this game is that it's enough to trigger Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). It does not, however, capture how many days it would take for whatever your guess is to play out. You can be utterly convinced a crash is coming and try to sit it out and just watch the line go up. To really play you'd need to see other indicators like volume and what the VIX is doing, but none of that measures the underlying health of the market itself-just what other people think it's doing.