A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Central Bank of Iran.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe so-called "Economic D-Day" is set to start this week, which is the term trotted out by the US to describe what it regards as the most crushing sanctions ever unveiled in all of human history against a foreign state. Up to me writing this, nobody appears to have many guesses as to what precisely this would entail, but a confirmed aspect is secondary sanctions - i.e. the sanctioning of any country that does business with Iran. China is Iran's largest trading partner, and has previously explicitly ordered their oil/refining companies to keep receiving and processing Iranian oil regardless of US sanctions. Assuming China maintains this relationship, and the ever-sanctioned Russia does likewise, it's difficult to see how these sanctions could not only 1) be significantly more effective than the current sanctions on Iran, which are very substantial and yet are being successfully sidestepped and mitigated, albeit at a meaningful cost to Iran's citizens, and 2) outright bring Iran to a position of surrender when it is in the midst of an existential war. The only conceivable way would be if the US did genuinely sanction China in response, which even the US, in this phase of baffling idiocy, is not yet so stupid as to attempt. Other suggestions I've seen is that the sanctions aren't so much about trying to keep China away as much as stopping the Gulf states from ever economically, politically, and indeed militarily reconciling with Iran; essentially saying "At the end of this war, you may not be on our side, but you certainly won't be on Iran's either."

Nonetheless, ever since Iran militarily proved themselves back in March and April, and, in particular, their missile cities proved effectively indestructible, I and many others came to the conclusion that the only way to destroy Iran would be some kind of internal political or economic crisis - likely both, going hand-in-hand - and it appears that US war planners now agree. A resumption of missile fire is still plenty possible, mind, but if I was the US, it would be in support of that hypothetical internal crisis, were it ever to start, rather than putting the cart before the horse. Therefore, one does have to take the threat of some kind of overwhelming economic offensive at least a little seriously, simply because it's the only non-nuclear vector left that has even the vaguest possibility of success. From all the analysts I take seriously, I'm getting signals that trend towards optimism that Iran will survive whatever the Bessents of the world can cook up; however, mere survival should not be Iran's medium/long term goal. Imaginary tankers transiting Hormuz notwithstanding, and with global diesel prices now skyrocketing notwithstanding, it's still unclear to me what the end result would be if Iran and the US simply decided to stop fighting from now on and apply maximum sanctions/energy disruption for weeks, months, or even years on end. Would China eventually pressure Iran to make concessions, for example? Could a critical portion of Iran's population, or a segment of the Iranian bourgeoisie, be tempted to try and overthrow the government to end the pain, long before the economy truly internally collapsed?

That's likely why, in response to the proposed sanctions on Iran, there have been signals coming out of the country (as always, hard to verify in the fog of invented/misattributed statements and exaggerations) that Iran could counterstrike by attacking US economic interests in the region - which, if correctly done, sounds much better to me than simply sitting there with thousands of missiles not being fired while you gradually bleed out over the medium term, hoping that the other guy will bleed out first. This would be a pretty profound step for Iran, though. Aside from maintaining the Hormuz blockade, they have always held the (somewhat strategically dubious) "moral high ground" of being the guy to respond to military attacks, perhaps due to an anxiety of being seen as a warmonger either internally or in countries throughout the world, not least their major allies.

So after all that bloviating, I have little more to offer than a shrug in terms of my predictions about what comes next.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 72 points 19 hours ago (3 children)

White House blocks Egyptian bank from accessing USD over 'Iran ties'

Washington says it is imposing crippling sanctions on all entities transacting with Iran, but no sanctions on China, Tehran's largest trade partner, have been announced

The US Treasury said on Friday that it would target the UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr over their business dealings with Iran, cutting off the branches' access to US financial institutions and preventing them from transacting in dollars.

Treasury officials separately imposed sanctions on one financial entity in Hong Kong and one person linked to Iran's Bank Melli, according to a notice posted on the Department of the Treasury's website.

https://thecradle.co/articles-id/39649

JDPON Bessent

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  • [–] 59 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    the more you tighten your grip, the more regional comprador states will slip through your fingers

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  • [–] 41 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    We can hope*

    Some people have not found a boot they won't lick if it gives them an ounce of power over others.

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  • [–] 40 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    if they're fuckin' with the local banks (but not obvious sanction targets like China) it's because economic d-day is really a last-ditch attempt to keep the GCC in line. nobody's making any money over there right now. that was the whole point of allying with the US in the first place

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  • [–] 29 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    Yeah, but whereas the US can't effectively coerce Iran any further, they sure can put the screws to their vassals. If their goal is just to whip vassals back in line then I could see this working. If their goal is to EPICALLY OWN NO PRISONERS TOTAL ECONOMIC WAR the Iranian state, this is a rather pitiful attempt. But what's new when it comes to the Trump regime? Big talk, uninspiring execution.

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  • [–] 26 points 18 hours ago (2 children)

    they can only delay the inevitable, and probably drive those allies to an as-yet-to-be-determined alternative financial system in the process. it's clear who the real power in the gulf is now. the ships and missiles and radars they would need to pretend otherwise aren't coming.

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  • [–] 24 points 18 hours ago (2 children)

    Well, it's clear who A power in the gulf is. Iran is indisputably exerting its control of the strait itself, but that isn't total domination, either. Iran can't protect the compradors from American consequences, it can only threaten and sustain its own. That's pretty threatening all considered. America won't be able to reassert control ever, most likely, but it can just break everything for everybody in lieu of giving an inch. That is plausibly what this strategy could result in; just going scorched earth by default as they force the world to deal with their military failure.

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  • [–] 29 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    The gulf states have oil they want to sell, and customers who need that oil. Iran's leverage is that if they don't play ball, they can trivially destroy production capacity and block the physical flow of the goods. US leverage is that they'll have to use a different system to get paid. Pretty weak sauce. Money, uh, finds a way.

    All US physical levers are dependent on local cooperation, and they can't actually protect the gulf states from Iran's consequences even with that help.

    It's not checkmate next turn but it's clear where the game is going.

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  • [–] 21 points 17 hours ago (1 child)

    I agree with that, but I'm implying the US could just threaten to blow it up too, or blow up anyone who doesn't play along. Two people put a gun to your head and give you contradictory orders, who do you listen to?

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  • [–] 16 points 17 hours ago (1 child)

    That'll just destroy the empire faster. Tighter grip, slipping through fingers

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  • [–] 12 points 16 hours ago

    Here's hoping. I guess I'm just saddened by imagining the death throws spilling over and causing collateral damage. Until comprador states can readily deter the US, the strategy could prove devastating in the meantime. Iran had decades to build the missile cities.

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  • [–] 19 points 18 hours ago (1 child)

    i dunno, the axis of resistance faced tougher odds in the past.

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  • [–] 23 points 18 hours ago

    That's not who this is affecting, though. I'm not doubting the battle readiness of anti Epstein-coalition powers. This likely won't substantially diminish their capabilities. That wouldn't matter if the US was willing to force vassals to endure the consequences so nobody could breathe, though. The point would be to just prevent anyone from winning so long as the US loses.

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