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The IPCC calculations were always criticized for being overly optimistic. Anyone following this debate knew that we would hit 1.5 C sooner rather than later.
We are definitely going to hit 3 degrees in our lifetime, once the melting tundras release their methane store.
Melting tundra releases methane, accelerating the increase in temperature. Rising temperature reduces polar ice, making oceans absorb more heat, accelerating heating. Climate pattern changes cause more frequent and larger wildfires, accelerating heating.
There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases that I'm not aware of, but there are a lot of positive feedback processes which is concerning.
I believe the IPCC 1.5C was criticized because it included effects of a carbon sequestering process that hasn't been invented yet. That's pretty optimistic.
Nuclear war, for one. In a more naturalistic vein, asteroid strike or massive volcanic eruptions. People worried about climate change just refuse to look on the bright side.
Still better than patroling the Mojave.
Which is why I support the idea of setting up bases on the Moon and/or Mars.
Everything is accelerating, and nobody gives a fuck to do anything before it's too late. I hate the argument that NASA doesn't push its budget to prevent CC or even Space X. Because stopping CC is a global effort on a colossal scale. It's not going to work until it's too late. Might as well get off this rock.
Edit: Very fucking optimistic of you all
Ignore them. They're so hopelessly black-pilled, they're not likely to support any significant course of action.
We're gonna have to kickstart human expansion into space to not only save ourselves from climate collapse but also what's left of the biosphere. You're not wrong at all.
If we can't make Earth livable we certainly can't make the Moon or Mars livable. At best it will be a handful of people living miserably for a short time. "Get off this rock" just isn't a realistic option, and we don't have the time to make it so.
The Earth would be more habitable than the Moon and Mars even in worse than worse case scenario climate change conditions. The atmosphere will still protect us from cosmic radiation, and we won’t need pressurized suits and habitats. A lot of people will suffer and die, but humanity will not go extinct because of climate change, our society will though.
If you think leaving earth is going to solve our problems then I have a huge fucking bridge to sell you.
Pretty sure Musk already sold it to him. It leads to Mars and is made of rainbows.
If anyone is curious about what 3C looks like, here's a solid video on how a 3C world would look.
https://youtu.be/uynhvHZUOOo?si=yk8rvR1Bg3t4aKGe
It's 16 minutes so as a TL;DW: Not "extinction event" but extremely bad. Areas of the globe will simply become unlivable - and these areas tend to be highly populated. The resulting mass migrations and shortages of water/food will lead to conflict, often between nuclear powers. End result: humanity will keep on living, but it will be a significantly more deadly environment and a significantly more conflict-prone political environment. Economic collapse will hit major metropolitan centers.
If watching the video bums you out try to focus on the absolutely bonkers cool sideburns the climate scientist has. Cheered me up a little. Like a handsome person telling you that you have a bad disease.
Anyway, vote for climate-positive outcomes wherever possible and consider joining a climate lobbyist group. I'm a member of this one but I'm sure there are others.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
As if all that is not depressing on its own, there just a little less than half of the world that believe it’s a hoax. While they’re being cooked alive. And continue to vote for politicians that perpetuate the idea it’s a hoax.
At least we now get some attention by constantly overhitting the predictions.