As someone who experienced renting in the ‘00s and ‘10s, my first apartment was a 2br in inner Melbourne for $250/w. By the end of the 3rd year, our rent rose to $275/w.

Our next place a couple suburbs further out was $350/w, by the end of the 3rd year, our rent rose to $385/w.

The last place we rented (inner suburbia), we stayed for 10 years - the rent started at $350/w, and even after a decade didn’t touch $400/w.

I’ve never experienced a rent drop in that entire time; but have had multiple years without a rental increase - something that would be quite rare these days.

The answer to the question as to whether/when your individual rent will ever drop - the answer is probably never - unless you move.

HOWEVER, an increased supply of rental properties and disincentives from keeping residential properties vacant, would cause increased competition for tenants and could cause a supply-side price drop.

The Howard-era Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax changes heavily incentivised hoarding existing properties and disincentivised building up housing density in existing suburbs due to a fear of negatively impacting prices.

Coupled with a big push towards white collar work via university degrees, rather than blue collar trades - has left us as a nation scrambling to build up enough housing stock to satisfy the massive population increase we’ve experienced since 2000.