https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/ev-2

Gotta optimize for life not just numbers

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)

You see the expected value fallacy thing pop up in real life when the lottery hits big digits. “Did you hear? The jackpot is over $1 billion! Let’s go buy tickets.”

Let’s be real, after $100 million, or honestly even $10 million, increasing the jackpot doesn’t change how much effect that money has on your life very much. At that point, likelihood is a lot more important.

But every time the jackpot peaks, it’s like all of these intelligent, thoughtful people around me lose their ability for rational thought. Why would you buy a lottery ticket now, but not when the jackpot was $500 million a month ago?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment