Great points all around.

nationalists and who in a hypothetical where a US blockade and missteps led to economic problems and suffering might easily turn on the party just as soon because the economic headwinds have changed and they no longer see the party as benefiting them.

Now that we are looking at an additional condition, let's game it out?

How do economic headwinds change?

Scenario 1: War and global supply chain issues (the current problem)

In this situation we are seeing Chinese people look at the US as the source of the trouble.

War and fear makes people more conservative. They want to preserve the status quo and prevent loss. People rally around existing institutions.

Not to give any weight to horseshoe theory, but in China that would mean people digging their heels in for the communist system.

This last point is a conclusion on my part based on what science exists on human behaviour. If someone in China disputes this, let me know.

Scenario 2: Chinese government liberalizes.

This would create a circular argument, because the we would need the liberalization of the government to cause the circumstances that can bring about the liberalization of the government.