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this post was submitted on 30 May 2026
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So with cheaper models being easily accessible and viable, is junior software engineering cooked in your opinion?
I think for a lot of companies the sugar rush from AI is ending. Coworkers i know who have been interviewing still get leetcode style problem solving questions, standard system design interviews, etc. The job market being tough for SWEs rn is because it is invariably compared to the era of 0% interest rate hiring. Persistence and a solid base of knowledge will land you something decent but getting a beginner job is absolutely tougher than before
It's going to be a bad time for software devs for the next two to five years imo. Not just because the business idiots think they can stop hiring junior devs but because mass layoffs mean junior devs are competing with middle and senior devs for the same positions. However there's always going to be a need for juniors because there's no senior devs without junior devs training to become senior.
Sound like development jobs will soon be like other skilled industries (trades, healthcare, social services etc).
You always see stuff about "shortage" of workers yet everyone I know is constantly out of work, working part time/casual, stringing together multiple jobs. What the employers want is people with 20 years of experience and lots of training in there. But nobody wants to hire a fresh young person for 20 years and be paying them to upskill regularly. Older people either dont want to teach/train or it can't be integrated with their existing jobs.
Everyone wants to reap but nobody wants to sow. Employers will do anything to avoid having to invest in people because it indicates a commitment to their value that makes workers upity and demanding. Its more important that the workers feel off balance and insecure all the time.
I think the whole reason we see stuff about a """shortage""" of skilled trades workers is to encourage young people to go into the skilled trades, which increases the supply and thus increases precarity and reduces wages. They tell everyone to go into plumbing because they want plumbers to be cheaper.
programmers have been thoroughly proletarianised i think. this was the goal of "learn to code" and all the hyping up of the career path as a free ticket to $$$
That was the goal but it was never enough.
"Learn to code" was like telling people to buy a household spinning wheel to earn extra income out of the home during early capitalism.
Now someone has invented the spinning jenny and they're building mills everywhere. The proling can really get going.
Trawling all the internet and existing code to devlo the models was digital primitive accumulation I guess?
Look out for Jacquard.
I don't think so, not more than the rest of the industry.
I don't think cheaper models will cook devs more than AI has already. Cheaper local models mean junior devs can get the means of production on their laptop without a Claude or cursor license from an employer. If anything its mitigating.
AI in general is going to cook the junior code monkey at big firms. Senior devs are going to write their designs and diagrams and give that to an AI system to develop instead of a team of junior devs. It'll become more PhD or go home like Physics. Smaller more flexible firms will still need devs.